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The Miami Heat will take on the Boston Celtics in Game 6 of their series on Friday night. It's time to continue our NBA odds series and make a Heat-Celtics prediction and pick.
This series has been one of the most back-and-forth affairs of the postseason. Both teams traded off wins until the Celtics managed to take games four and five in back-to-back victories. Now, Boston has a chance to win the series on their home floor and send themselves to the NBA Finals. The Heat obviously need to survive here and give themselves a chance to make their second Finals appearance in three seasons in a potential Game 7. This should be an exciting matchup, so let's get straight into the pick.
Here are the Heat-Celtics NBA Playoffs odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
NBA Playoffs Odds: Heat-Celtics Odds
Miami Heat: +8.5 (-110)
Boston Celtics: -8.5 (-110)
Over: 201.5 (-110)
Under: 201.5 (-110)
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Why The Heat Could Cover The Spread
In their two wins in this series, the Heat had a ton of success on the defensive side of the floor. In Game 1, the Celtics were held to 45% shooting from the field and 32% shooting from three-point range. They nearly replicated those poor statistics in Game 3. Miami should be able to get back to that type of defensive performance in this game, as they've been elite defensively throughout the entire season. They only allowed 104 points per game throughout the year while holding their opponents to 44% shooting from the field. It's very likely that the Heat perform well defensively in this game, and that should lead to this contest being somewhat close.
It's unlikely the Heat replicate their recent offensive performances in this game. Miami shot an abysmal 33% from the field in Game 4 while shooting 55% from the free-throw line. Things were even worse in Game 5, where the Heat shot 31% from the field and a downright awful 15% from beyond the arc. The Celtics are a pretty good defensive team, but they aren't that good. There's just no way they're able to hold the Heat to those percentages consistently, so Miami should be able to rebound in this contest with their season on the line.
Why The Celtics Could Cover The Spread
Boston has looked fantastic offensively lately. They've been spreading the ball around, scoring in multiple ways, and involving pretty much the entire team. Star forward Jayson Tatum has been particularly good, as he's dropped 22 or more points in four of five games in the series. Guard Jaylen Brown has also been an elite contributor, with two absolutely massive scoring days in Games 3 and 5. It doesn't look like the Heat have much of an answer for this multifaceted attack.
Home court advantage will be a huge advantage for the Celtics in this game. Boston has gone 5-3 throughout the postseason on their home floor after earning a 28-13 record in TD Garden during the regular season. The Heat have lost four times on the road during the playoffs compared to only one loss at home. It's clear that Miami is far more uncomfortable when they play on the road, and playing in a place like The Garden won't do them any favors. The Celtics should take advantage of playing in front of their fans in this game.
Final Heat-Celtics Prediction & Pick
It's hard to see the Heat getting blown out in this game. They may lose, but it won't be by much. Miami should cover in this game.
Final Heat-Celtics Prediction & Pick: Miami Heat: +8.5 (-110)
