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The Dallas Mavericks will take on the Utah Jazz in game six of their first round series on Thursday. It's time to continue our NBA odds series and make a Mavericks-Jazz prediction and pick.
This series has been one of the most entertaining matchups of the first round. The Jazz struck first with a Game 1 victory, but Dallas quickly responded with two consecutive wins despite the absence of superstar guard Luka Doncic. Game 5 was one of the best games of the postseason, as the Jazz won a thriller off of a Rudy Gobert game-winning dunk. A Mavericks win in game 6 gave the lead to Dallas, making this a potential elimination game for the Jazz. This game should be just as exciting as the rest of the series has been, so let's get straight into the pick.
Here are the Mavericks-Jazz NBA playoffs odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
NBA Playoffs Odds: Mavericks-Jazz Odds
Dallas Mavericks: -1 (-106)
Utah Jazz: +1 (-114)
Over: 214.5 (-110)
Under: 214.5 (-110)
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Why The Mavericks Could Cover The Spread
The Mavericks have been dominant on the defensive side of the floor in this series. The Jazz have only scored more than 110 points once, and they've scored less than 100 twice. Dallas' success on that end of the floor isn't all that surprising, as they were fantastic defensively in the regular season. The Mavericks only allowed 104 points per game during the season, all while holding their opponents to 45% shooting from the field. Dallas also held their opponents to some of the worst effective field goal numbers and shooting efficiency numbers in the NBA. Expect the Mavericks to continue their impressive defensive run in this contest.
The presence of Luka Doncic will make all the difference in this game. He's come back strong from a calf injury in Game 4, immediately dropping a 30-point double-double in a loss. Doncic also went off in Game 5, where he posted a whopping 33 points and 13 rebounds. This success isn't anything new, as he also posted huge double-doubles in both regular season games he played against the Jazz. There's no reason to think that he'll slow down in this matchup, and that could lead to a Dallas victory.
Why The Jazz Could Cover The Spread
Utah's defense has been just as good as Dallas' so far. The Jazz have only allowed the Mavericks to surpass 102 points twice this series. Utah has held Dallas to 43% shooting from the field in each of their last two matchups, an achievement that shouldn't go unnoticed. In Games 2 and 3, where the Jazz gave up big numbers, Dallas just happened to catch fire from three-point range. The Mavs shot over 40% from three in both of those games, a number that is completely unsustainable for any team. It's clear that this Utah defense is playing fantastic basketball, and now they'll get to do it on their home floor.
Unsurprisingly, the Jazz are a better team at home than they are on the road. Utah went 29-12 in Vivint Arena during the regular season compared to 21-15 anywhere else. Strangely, the Mavericks had the exact same home and away records as the Jazz, showing that they too are more comfortable on their home floor. Utah is a tough place for any team to play, and the Jazz should capitalize on that in this contest.
Final Mavericks-Jazz Prediction & Pick
This game will be a close one, but the Mavericks should end the series here. Utah has been too inconsistent to trust, and the Mavericks look like they're hitting their stride. Lock in Dallas.
Final Pick: Dallas Mavericks: -1 (-106)
