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The Dallas Mavericks will take on the Golden State Warriors on Thursday night. It's time to continue our NBA odds series and make a Mavericks-Warriors prediction and pick.
This series has been surprisingly one-sided. The Warriors have dominated from Game 1, as they won the first three games of the series with relative ease. The Mavericks somehow managed to avoid being swept in Game 4 behind a big performance from star guard Luka Doncic. Now, these teams will enter a crucial Game 5, one that has an NBA Finals appearance on the line. This series looks like it's heating up, so this should be a fairly entertaining matchup. Let's cut to the chase and get into the pick.
Here are the Mavericks-Warriors NBA Playoffs odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
NBA Playoffs Odds: Mavericks-Warriors Odds
Dallas Mavericks: +7 (-108)
Golden State Warriors: -7 (-112)
Over: 215.5 (-110)
Under: 215.5 (-110)
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Why The Mavericks Could Cover The Spread
The Mavericks finally played like themselves on the defensive end of the floor in Game 5. They had been terrible on defense throughout the first three games of the series, but that was obviously going to change based on their defensive numbers. Over the course of the season, Dallas only gave up 103 points per game while holding their opponents to a 34% shooting percentage from three-point range. The Warriors were red-hot to start the series, but they were finally held to 45% shooting from the field and 35% shooting from three-point range in Game 5. It's fair to expect the Mavericks to keep up their defensive success, as it seems like they were uncharacteristically bad on defense throughout the first three games of the series.
Offensively, the Mavericks began this series on the wrong note. They shot 36% from the field and 22% from three in Game 1, some of the worst percentages Dallas has put up all postseason. Game 3 wasn't much different, as the Mavs were again shockingly bad from the field. They shot 40% from the field and 28% from three in that game, another couple of terrible percentages. There's no way that Dallas will continue to shoot that poorly from the field, and things began to turn around in Game 5. That trend of improvement should continue, and the Mavericks should play somewhat well offensively here.
Why The Warriors Could Cover The Spread
It's surprising that the Warriors aren't favored by more in this game. All three of Golden State's wins came fairly handily. They never trailed in Game 1, and they dominated the entire second half of Game 2. Game 3 was similar to Game 1, where the Warriors essentially dominated the contest for all four quarters. It took an insanely good shooting day in Game 4 for the Mavericks to even hang around with the Warriors. Dallas shot 46% from three in Game 4, and Luka Doncic nearly dropped a 30-point triple-double. Despite that, the Mavericks still only managed to win by nine points. Golden State should be favored by far more in this contest, assuming that Dallas shoots normally from the field in this game.
Home court advantage will be huge for the Warriors in this game. They've been one of the best home teams in the NBA this year, earning a 31-10 record in Oracle Arena on the season. Golden State has also been the best home team throughout this postseason, as they're undefeated at home during these playoffs. The Mavericks are also a much better team when they play at home, as they've gone 3-6 on the road throughout this postseason.
Final Mavericks-Warriors Prediction & Pick
The Warriors should finish the series in this game. The Mavericks haven't been consistent enough to warrant a pick here, especially as the road team.
Final Mavericks-Warriors Prediction & Pick: Golden State Warriors -7 (-112)
