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The New Orleans Pelicans will head to the desert for Game 1 of the NBA Western Conference Quarterfinals against the Phoenix Suns on Sunday. It's time to continue our NBA odds series with a Pelicans-Suns prediction and pick.
The Pelicans claimed the eighth seed in the Western Conference by defeating the Los Angeles Clippers in Southern California on Friday night. Brandon Ingram shined as he scored 30 points in the same building where he played to start his NBA career. Alas, Ingram sparked a comeback after the Pelicans trailed by 13 in the fourth quarter. Conversely, the Pelicans led early in the game but could not hold onto a 16-point lead. The game ebbed and flowed between New Orleans and Los Angeles. Eventually, the Pelicans took the lead for good with over four minutes left in the game. The Clippers were without Paul George due to the health and safety protocol, and it allowed New Orleans to capitalize. This is the first playoff appearance for the Pelicans since the 2017-2018 season.
The Suns coasted to the best mark in the NBA with a 64-18 record. Phoenix did this by scoring points in bunches and converting their shots from the field. Also, the Suns were monsters on the boards, ranking eighth in rebounds. It helped that Phoenix rarely turned the ball over. Consequently, the Suns were an elite team from top to bottom.
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Pelicans-Suns NBA Playoffs odds:
NBA Playoffs Odds: Pelicans-Suns Odds
Pelicans: +9.5 (-106)
Suns: -9.5 (-114)
Over: 225 (-110)
Under: 225 (-110)
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Why The Pelicans Could Cover The Spread
New Orleans stunned the Clippers and did it without Zion Williamson. He did not play a game this season due to a fractured right foot. However, they do have Ingram and CJ McCollum. Both men have filled in admirably for the Pelicans. Now, the pair need to do the unthinkable and attempt to shock the best team in the NBA. Ingram is averaging 22.7 points per game and 5.6 assists a game. Meanwhile, McCollum is averaging 24.3 points per game while converting 39.4 percent of his 3-point shots. In addition to scoring, the Pelicans have pulled down the boards. Jonas Valanciunas has averaged 11.4 rebounds per game while averaging 17.8 points per game.
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Additionally, the Pelicans must contain Devin Booker and Chris Paul. New Orleans has a better chance of stopping Paul. Ironically, the Pelicans beat the Suns one time this season, and it was a game in which Paul did not play. The Suns have Mikal Bridges as another scoring option. He scored 20 points on the Pelicans in one of their matchups this season. New Orleans must avoid turnovers and contain the firepower that the Suns possess. If they can force Phoenix into difficult shots, they might be able to steal the game.
The Pelicans will cover the spread if Ingram and Williamson convert their opportunities and lead the team in scoring. In addition to that, the Pelicans must win the battle on the boards and control possession. Lastly, New Orleans cannot turn the ball over.
Why The Suns Could Cover The Spread
Phoenix was the best team in the NBA by miles. The Suns did this by being the best field-goal shooting team and ranking in the top ten in points, free-throw shooting percentage, 3-point shooting percentage, rebounds, turnovers, and assists. Hence, the Suns do not have many weaknesses. However, there is one aspect where Phoenix does struggle. The Suns ranked 22nd in blocked shots. Phoenix plays a style that relies on scoring against the opponent at will. It helped them get to the NBA Finals last season until they fell short against the Milwaukee Bucks.
Booker was exceptional this season once again. He averaged 26.8 points per game and hit 38.3 percent of his shots. However, Paul is the key for the Suns. He must stay healthy for the entirety of the playoffs to help the Suns succeed. His ability to outsmart the opponent is underrated and understated. The duel combo of Booker and Paul provides a good mixture of youthfulness and veteran experience. The Suns defeated the Pelicans three times this season. Every single win was by 10 or more points. Hence, the Suns will need their stars to keep that trend alive.
Phoenix will cover the spread and blow the Pelicans out if Booker and Paul can rise to the challenge. Additionally, the Suns must be ready to contain the firepower that the Pelicans provide on the other end. If the Suns convert their shots, they will run the score up and cover.
Final Pelicans-Suns Prediction & Pick
The Suns will burn the Pelicans. New Orleans made it to the playoffs on a play-in game, while Phoenix has prepared for this game over the last week. The best team in the NBA will get it done once again.
Final Pelicans-Suns Prediction & Pick: Suns -9.5 (-106)
