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The Phoenix Suns will take on the Dallas Mavericks in Game 3 of their series on Friday night. It's time to continue our NBA odds series and make a Suns-Mavericks prediction and pick.
To the dismay of Mavericks fans everywhere, the first two games of this series were not competitive. Dallas only lost by seven points in Game 1, but they trailed for the entirety of the contest. Game 2 was a similar story, as Phoenix jumped out to an early lead and retained it easily, cruising to a 20-point victory. This is obviously a crucial contest for Dallas, as a 3-0 deficit is essentially a death sentence in the NBA. This game should be far more competitive than the first two, so let's get into the pick.
Here are the Suns-Mavericks NBA Playoffs odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
NBA Playoffs Odds: Suns-Mavericks Game 3 Odds
Phoenix Suns: +1 (-108)
Dallas Mavericks: -1 (-112)
Over: 218 (-110)
Under: 218 (-110)
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Why The Suns Could Cover The Spread
The Dallas offense actually performed incredibly well in both contests so far, but the Suns still came out with wins. In Game 1, superstar guard Luka Doncic dropped 45 points, and the Mavericks shot 47% from the field and 41% from three-point range. In Game 2, Dallas shot 45% from the field and 41% from three again. Those shooting numbers, especially the three-point numbers, have to go down at some point. It's impossible to shoot that well over an entire series. The Mavericks have been the beneficiaries of some positive variance, and they still lost both games. It's very likely that the Suns have taken Dallas's best offensive punch twice and still emerged victorious. When the Mavs shoot normal percentages from the field, the Suns will win even easier.
Part of Phoenix's defensive success is their ability to match up well with Dallas. The Mavericks are centered around Doncic and a couple of high-scoring guards in Jalen Brunson and Spencer Dinwiddie. The Suns have a variety of wings who can match up and switch those defensive matchups when necessary. Mikal Bridges, Cameron Johnson, Jae Crowder, and Torrey Craig are all plus defenders who make things tough on the Mavericks' offense. In order to succeed, Dallas will need big days from guys who don't typically produce big offensive numbers. That's unlikely against one of the best defenses in the league, so it's fair to expect Phoenix to continue their stretch of good defensive play.
Why The Mavericks Could Cover The Spread
Throughout the course of the regular season, Dallas fielded one of the best defenses in the NBA. They only allowed 104 points per game on 45% shooting while also holding their opponents to a 33% shooting percentage from deep. However, the Suns have come out of the gates blazing hot from the field. Phoenix shot 50% from the field and 39% from three in Game 1 while shooting 64% from the field in Game 2 to go along with a 52% three-point percentage. Much like the Mavericks, the Suns have to cool off eventually. This is still a good Dallas defense, and it will be nearly impossible for Phoenix to continue that offensive pace. Expect Dallas to massively improve on defense here.
Home court advantage will also help the Mavericks on both sides of the floor here. Dallas went 29-12 in American Airlines Center while going 23-18 anywhere else. The Suns were also slightly better on their home floor, making this a somewhat uncomfortable matchup for Phoenix. With their backs against the wall, the Mavs should play with some fire in front of their home crowd. That could be enough to pull out the cover.
Final Suns-Mavericks Game 3 Prediction & Pick
It's a huge shock to see the Suns enter this game as favorites of this size. They've been dominant in this series, and they should win by a couple of baskets here.
Final Suns-Mavericks Game 3 Prediction & Pick: Phoenix Suns: +1 (-108)
