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The Phoenix Suns will take on the Dallas Mavericks on Thursday night. It's time to continue our NBA odds series and make a Suns-Mavericks prediction and pick.
The Mavericks will face elimination for the first time in this game. Dallas won Games 3 and 4 to even up the series at two games apiece, but the Suns scored a dominant Game 5 victory. Phoenix won by a score of 110-80 to put Dallas on the ropes in Game 6. This series has been back and forth the entire time, and this game should be more of the same. This should be an entertaining one, so let's get into the pick.
Here are the Suns-Mavericks NBA Playoffs odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
NBA Playoffs Odds: Suns-Mavericks Game 6 Odds
Phoenix Suns: -2 (-110)
Dallas Mavericks: +2 (-110)
Over: 211 (-110)
Under: 211 (-110)
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Why The Suns Could Cover The Spread
The Suns have been playing fantastic basketball on the defensive side of the floor. That isn't exactly a surprise, as Phoenix was one of the best defenses throughout the regular season. They only allowed 107 points per game while holding their opponents to 44% shooting on the season. Those numbers have held up in the postseason, as the Suns just held the Mavericks to 38% shooting from the field and 25% shooting from three in Game 5. A similar performance isn't out of the question in this game.
Phoenix managed to win Games 1 and 2 despite huge performances from Mavericks guard Luka Doncic. Doncic dropped 45 points and 35 points in those games, respectively. The Suns still pulled out back-to-back victories, showing that the Mavericks need more from other players besides Doncic to contribute in order to win. The only other Mavericks that have made significant offensive contributions are Dorian Finney-Smith and Jalen Brunson, but neither has been super consistent. In order to win and cover, Dallas needs those guys to step up. Historically, it's unlikely that they do, and that should allow the Suns a good shot at covering.
Why The Mavericks Could Cover The Spread
The Suns have had some good offensive performances in this series, but those have been products of unusually good shooting days. In Game 1, Phoenix dropped 121 points on 50% shooting from the field and 39% shooting from three. In Game 2, the Suns shot even better, earning a 64% shooting percentage from the field and an insane 52% percentage from beyond the arc. Those numbers are completely unsustainable for any offense, especially against a defense as good as Dallas's. The Suns regressed to normal shooting numbers in Games 3 and 4, and they lost both of those games. Phoenix should do that once again here, which will give the Mavericks a big leg up.
Home court advantage will give Dallas a huge boost. The Mavericks went 29-12 at home this season compared to a 23-18 road record. The Suns were also slightly better at home than they were on the road. The home team has also won every single game in this series, making it clear that playing in American Airlines Center benefits Dallas hugely.
Final Suns-Mavericks Game 6 Prediction & Pick
The Suns will end the series here. Dallas is too reliant on Doncic offensively, and that will cost them in this game. Lock in Phoenix here and don't look back.
Final Suns-Mavericks Game 6 Prediction & Pick: Phoenix Suns: -2 (-110)
