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The Phoenix Suns will face the New Orleans Pelicans in the third game of their first-round series. It's time to continue our NBA odds series and make a Suns-Pelicans prediction and pick.
This series is a whole lot closer than anyone thought it would be. The Suns managed to pull away late in game one to secure a victory, but it didn't come easily. Star shooting guard Devin Booker went down with a hamstring injury in game two, which led to the Pelicans stealing a game on the road. Now New Orleans has a chance to take control of the series on their home floor, a possibility that cannot be overlooked. This should be an exciting matchup, so let's get into the pick.
Here are the Suns-Pelicans NBA playoffs odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
NBA Playoffs Odds: Suns-Pelicans Odds
Phoenix Suns: -2.5 (-106)
New Orleans Pelicans: +2.5 (-114)
Over: 216 (-110)
Under: 216 (-110)
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Why The Suns Could Cover The Spread
Even without Booker, this Suns team matches up exceedingly well with the Pelicans. Phoenix is loaded with strong defensive wing players, including Mikal Bridges, Cameron Johnson, and Jae Crowder. All three of those guys are capable of guarding Pelicans stars Brandon Ingram and CJ McCollum. Center DeAndre Ayton is a fantastic matchup for Jonas Valanciunas, as he's one of the best defensive centers in the league. Overall, Phoenix has the defensive tools to make this a miserable game for the Pelicans.
This is a surprisingly small spread for the Suns. Phoenix played New Orleans three times in the regular season, defeating them twice. In each win, the Suns beat the Pelicans by double-digits. New Orleans has improved massively since those contests, but asking them to cover a one-possession spread against one of the best teams in the league may be a little too much.
Why The Pelicans Could Cover The Spread
The importance of the Devin Booker injury cannot be overstated. Booker is easily the best isolation scorer the Suns have, and his playmaking ability is an important part of the Phoenix offense. He led his team in scoring both in the regular season and in the postseason, so his absence will leave a huge scoring void. It'll be nearly impossible to replace Booker's scoring ability, which should allow New Orleans' mediocre defense to hold up much better here.
The fact that the Pelicans are at home will play a big part in this one. New Orleans went 19-22 at home throughout the regular season, while earning a slightly worse road record. The Pelicans have also had success against the spread at home, earning a 22-19-1 mark ATS in Smoothie King Arena. It's clear that New Orleans is a better team when they play at home, and they're returning to their own turf with all the momentum they need in this one.
Final Suns-Pelicans Prediction & Pick
This game will be very close, but the Pelicans should cover. It wouldn't be surprising to see New Orleans pull off an upset victory here either. Lock in the Pels here and don't look back.
Final Suns-Pelicans Prediction & Pick: New Orleans Pelicans: +2.5 (-114)
