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The Minnesota Timberwolves will take on the Memphis Grizzlies in a crucial Game 5 on Tuesday night. It's time to continue our NBA odds series and make a Timberwolves-Grizzlies prediction and pick.
This has been one of the most exciting playoff matchups in the NBA Playoffs. The Timberwolves have proven themselves to be capable of hanging with the Grizzlies thanks to the stellar play of Karl-Anthony Towns and Anthony Edwards. Both teams have young talent that's propelling their success, as superstar point guard Ja Morant and shooting guard Desmond Bane have been fantastic for the Grizzlies. With so many fun, explosive players taking the floor, this game is bound to be a great one. Let's cut to the chase and get into the pick.
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Here are the Timberwolves-Grizzlies NBA playoffs odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
NBA Playoffs Odds: Timberwolves-Grizzlies Odds
Minnesota Timberwolves: +6 (-110)
Memphis Grizzlies: -6 (-110)
Over: 231.5 (-110)
Under: 231.5 (-110)
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Why The Timberwolves Could Cover The Spread
Minnesota's offense gives them a chance against almost anyone in the NBA. The Timberwolves averaged 115 points per game during the regular season, in large part because of the incredibly high pace they play with. Head coach Chris Finch's squad shoots the fifth-most shots per game in the NBA and the most three-pointers per contest. That play style has shown itself to fare well against the Grizzlies, who struggle to defend against the fast break while allowing solid three-point shooting numbers to their opponents. The T-Wolves have scored 119 points or more twice in this series, and this game could end with a similar result.
This spread is smaller than expected. The Grizzlies were only favored by a couple of points the last two times these teams played, and they still failed to cover in one of those games. Throughout the regular season, these teams also played each other four times. The Timberwolves won two of those games, and only lost once by seven or more points. There's reason to believe that Minnesota could cover the spread in this one.
Why The Grizzlies Could Cover The Spread
While the Timberwolves have taken two games in this series, those wins can be attributed to uncharacteristically good offensive play from Minnesota. In Game 1, the T-Wolves shot 50% from the field and 39% from the field. In Game 2, Minnesota shot 47% from the field and an incredible 50% from three. No matter what team we're talking about, those shooting numbers are completely unsustainable. Both times the Timberwolves have shot normal percentages, the Grizzlies have absolutely destroyed them. Counting on elite offensive production is a terrible way to try and win games, and that will show on Tuesday night.
Home court advantage will play a big part here. Memphis was one of the best home teams in the NBA this season, earning a 30-11 record in FedEx Forum. The T-Wolves were similarly successful at home, but their road record is less than inspiring. Minnesota went 20-21 when they played away from home this year, and now they'll have to play in Memphis, a notably difficult arena to play in. The boost of playing at home could help the Grizzlies cover the spread.
Final Timberwolves-Grizzlies Prediction & Pick
While there is a chance of another offensive explosion from the Timberwolves, the Grizzlies are the right pick here. Memphis should win fairly easily as long as Minnesota doesn't shoot for video game-like numbers from the field. Lock in the Grizzlies to defend their home court here.
Final Pick: Memphis Grizzlies: -6 (-110)
