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The Golden State Warriors will take on the Dallas Mavericks in Game 4 of the Western Conference Finals on Tuesday night. It's time to continue our NBA odds series and make a Warriors-Mavericks prediction and pick.
This series has been one of the more disappointing matchups of the postseason. After the Mavericks managed to upset the Phoenix Suns, the stage looked set for an incredibly exciting matchup with the Warriors. Instead, it's been a totally one-sided affair. Golden State has dominated the series from the start, beginning things with a 35-point victory in Game 1. The Warriors didn't slow down in Games 2 or 3, as point guard Stephen Curry led them to a couple of relatively easy wins in those games. Now they have a chance to send themselves to the NBA Finals. This game should be an exciting one, as things don't get more high-stakes than this.
Here are the Warriors-Mavericks NBA Playoffs odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
NBA Playoffs Odds: Warriors-Mavericks Odds
Golden State Warriors: +1 (-108)
Dallas Mavericks: -1 (-112)
Over: 215.5 (-110)
Under: 215.5 (-110)
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Why The Warriors could cover the spread
Golden State's defense has been completely dominant over the last three games. In Game 1, Dallas was held to 87 points, and they didn't have a single player surpass 20 points. The Mavericks shot uncharacteristically well from the field in Game 2, but the Warriors' defense quickly rebounded from that off day. Golden State took control defensively in Game 3, holding the Mavs to 40% shooting from the field and 28% shooting from beyond the arc. Only three Dallas players scored more than nine points in that game. It's clear that the Warriors have the ability to lock up this Mavericks' offense, and there's no reason to think that will change in this game.
It's a huge surprise to see Golden State enter this game as an underdog. They've handled the Mavericks fairly easily in every single game this series. While the final score of Games 2 and 3 make things look relatively close, the Warriors were in firm control of both contests for all 48 minutes. Now, Golden State doesn't even have to win to pull off a cover. This line looks like a mistake from the oddsmakers, as the Warriors should be favored by a couple of points at the very least.
Why The Mavericks could cover the spread
While the Mavericks have struggled defensively recently, there's reason to believe that will change here. Over the course of the regular season, Dallas was one of the best defensive teams in the league. They only allowed their opponents to shoot 45% from the field, and 34% from three-point range. The Warriors smashed those defensive statistics i n Games 1 and 2. Golden State shot 56% from the field in Game 1, and followed that up by shooting 50% from three in Game 2. The Mavericks' defense will return to form eventually, and it wouldn't be a surprise to see it in this game.
The only feasible reason the Warriors enter this game as underdogs is because of the venue. Dallas has been one of the better home teams in the NBA, earning a 29-12 record in American Airlines Center during the regular season. That trend has certainly continued in the postseason. The Mavericks are 5-2 at home during the playoffs, compared to 3-6 anywhere else. Dallas is undeniably a much better team when they play at home, and that will play a huge part in this contest.
Final Warriors-Mavericks Prediction & Pick
Despite Dallas's home court advantage, the Warriors are the right pick here. They shouldn't enter this game as any sort of underdogs, so seeing that line is too good to pass up. Taking Golden State to finish the series here straight up isn't a bad bet either.
Final Warriors-Mavericks Prediction & Pick: Warriors: +1 (-108)
