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It's a battle of the top two teams in the Mountain West on Saturday night when the New Mexico Lobos battle the Utah State Aggies. Utah State gets the home-court advantage in this game, which is critical as each team is 11-1 at home this season. The Aggies own the season series against the Lobos, winning eight of the past nine games. However, the Lobos covered the spread in five of the last ten. It's time to continue our College Basketball odds series with a New Mexico-Utah State prediction and pick.
New Mexico has won nine of their last ten games, but the loss will stick out if they finish anywhere other than first in the Mountain West standings. The Lobos entered San Jose State as 9.5-point favorites but dropped a one-point heartbreaker. New Mexico bounced back from that loss with two double-digit wins, including a 28-point victory over Fresno State. However, they barely escaped with a two-point win over UNLV in their last game. New Mexico has been dominant at home this season, but there are some obvious issues on the road.
Utah State has also won nine of their past ten games but hasn't been as profitable for bettors. The Aggies covered just two of their last seven games but do have some dominating wins in the two covers. Utah State flipped the script this season, as they were underdogs in the first couple of Mountain West games but have now been significant favorites in their last seven games. Their lack of covers shows that the oddsmakers may have overcorrected, but the water should eventually find its level.
Here are the New Mexico-Utah State College Basketball Odds, courtesy of FanDuel
College Basketball Odds: New Mexico-Utah State Odds
New Mexico: +4.5 (-102)
Moneyline: +168
Utah State: -4.5 (-120)
Moneyline: -205
Over: 160.5 (-110)
Under: 160.5 (-110)
How to Watch New Mexico vs. Utah State
Time: 9:30 PM ET/6:30 PM PT
TV: FS1
*Watch college basketball LIVE with fuboTV (Get Access | Save $30)*
Why New Mexico Will Cover The Spread/Win
New Mexico will be one of the best offensive teams that Utah State has faced all season, which should show whether the Aggies are as good as their defensive ranking suggests. The Lobos rank 19th in the nation with 83.4 points per game, while the Aggies rank 73rd with 67.7 points allowed.
Why Utah State Will Cover The Spread/Win
New Mexico failed to cover in three of their past four road games, and the only cover was an eight-point win as seven-point favorites. They were a jumper away from not covering in four consecutive road games, which is a concern. Utah State hasn't been as good at covering the spreads at home, but they are 11-1 outright.
Utah State's offense holds a significant advantage over the New Mexico defense. The Lobos rank 214th in college basketball with 72.4 points allowed per game, while the Aggies rank 29th with 82.4 points. Utah State is efficient from three, shooting 37.5% with 24.5 threes per game. New Mexico has been poor defending the three, allowing a three-point efficiency of 35.6%.
Final New Mexico-Utah State Prediction & Pick
Utah State has been nearly flawless at home, and their offensive matchup is better than New Mexico's. The Aggies' defense may not be as good as the numbers suggest, but the Lobos have been struggling on the road. Take Utah State to win this first matchup of the season against a team they have had plenty of success against recently.
Final New Mexico-Utah State Prediction & Pick: Utah State -4.5 (-120)
