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This week, we have two key AFC North matchups, a few exciting matchups, and a few high-flying offenses going up against overmatched teams that offer the potential for high-scoring blowouts. Continue reading for my best moneyline and total bets for this weekend, and good luck making money betting on the NFL tomorrow!
All NFL odds courtesy of FanDuel.
NFL Picks: Steelers-Ravens
Under 37 (-110)
This game represents a throwback to an earlier era of football: A physical, brutal game of inches, with both teams playing smashmouth ball. Physical running backs against equally physical defenders, with receivers paying for every catch with a physical hit. This game is going to be a slugfest, and between the well-documented struggles of the Steelers’ offense and a Baltimore offense that is playing without its starting quarterback, this game may be tough to watch if you are a fan of high-scoring football games.
This is going to be a defensive fight, a low-scoring game with every yard earned through physical pain. Both teams will be able to move the ball okay in the midfield area, but in the RedZone tough defenses on both sides and physical play will likely lead to more field goals than touchdowns.
Kenny Pickett has been limiting his mistakes over the past several weeks, but he also has not been putting a ton of points on the board, and a variety of issues have thwarted numerous touchdown opportunities for Pittsburgh’s offense.
On the other side of the field, Baltimore’s backup quarterback, Tyler Huntley, has his work cut out for him against a smart, aggressive, fast Steelers defense.
I have no clue which team will win this game (although my instinct is to lean toward Pittsburgh given Baltimore has their backup QB playing and the Steelers have a very good defense), but my prediction for the final score is somewhere around 17-10, which would put us firmly in play for the under, with some breathing room as well.
NFL Picks: Chiefs-Broncos
Chiefs -8.5 (-110)
If there was ever an NFL game that was worthy of being a double-digit spread, this would be the game. Home-field advantage is nowhere near enough to save the Broncos from getting obliterated tomorrow afternoon. The disparity in talent levels between these two teams is just simply too steep.
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The one thing the Broncos do have going for them is an elite pass defense, but this is the Kansas City Chiefs and Patrick Mahomes we’re talking about here.
There is also a potential alternate play here: If you believe in the Broncos' defense but not their offense, you can take the under (currently at 44 points at -115 odds). It is even within the realm of possibility that both of these could hit, with a final score in the 27-13 range in favor of the Chiefs.
Personally, I am going to stick with the Chiefs spread, and I might sprinkle a little on the under, maybe some profits from an earlier game if the line holds steady or increases. I think the under is riskier, but if you believe in the Broncos' defense it is an option.
In the modern NFL, good offense beats good defense, and the Chiefs' offense is way better than just “good”. They are elite, and they will carry the day against the Broncos. Expect the Chiefs to build a double-digit lead by halftime, keep their foot on the gas and close out this game strong.
NFL Picks: Browns-Bengals
Bengals -5.5 (-110)
The Bengals are the better team, even if Deshaun Watson was at his best. The Browns may have a slight edge on the ground, but Joe Mixon is no slouch himself, and with JaMarr Chase back in the lineup, the Bengals boast the better passing game. Take into account that Watson looked nothing like his usual self last week, and he will likely need a lot more time, perhaps an entire offseason, to build timing with his receivers.
Honestly, for this season the Browns might be better off playing Jacoby Brissett for the rest of this off-season and then letting Watson get a fresh start next year. I get that more time off wouldn’t help, and game experience does, but this move is essentially the Browns punting on this year to focus on the future. That’s not necessarily the wrong move, but it certainly makes me lean more toward the Bengals in this matchup. I anticipate Cincinnati to win by at least a touchdown, and I would be comfortable playing this line to -6.5. With the line as it currently stands, I’m getting an extra point in my favor, which puts some extra value on this line for me. I’ll back Cincy to cover.
