The Buffalo Bills play the New England Patriots in a big AFC East Week 16 matchup. It's time continue our NFL odds series with a Bills-Patriots prediction and pick.

The Bills and Patriots will play in a massively important division battle on Sunday, as the Bills are looking to run down New England and re-gain the lead in the AFC East by the end of the season. The Patriots beat the Bills in their Week 13 matchup in Buffalo with the use of a heavy ground attack. Mac Jones attempted just three passes in that win, as the Patriots ran the ball 46 times for 222 yards on the Bills' defense. Buffalo will need to find an answer for the Patriots' run game if they want a different result in this one. New England comes in as slim home favorites over the Bills in this one.

Here is how FanDuel has set the Bills-Patriots odds for this Week 16 NFL matchup.

NFL Odds: Bills-Patriots Odds

Buffalo Bills +1 (-110)

New England Patriots -1 (-110)

Over 43.5 (-110)

Under 43.5 (-110)

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Why The Bills Could Cover The Spread

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Buffalo has more firepower offensively and should look to turn this into more of an up-tempo affair. Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs are one of the most deadly QB-WR duos in the NFL, and they will need to get going if the Bills are going to win this one and pull to 9-6 with the Patriots. The Bills are just 2-3 in their last five games, as they have not looked like the Super Bowl contenders many thought they were early in the season. They still have time to right the ship and lock in a home playoff by winning their division, but only if they win vs. the Patriots on Sunday.

The Bills are 7-6-1 vs. the spread this season and 4-3 on the road outright.

Why The Patriots Could Cover The Spread

New England will very likely pass the ball more than three times in this one, as the Bills offense is bound to make a few more plays and force the Patriots to score more offensively. Bill Belichick's defense will still present plenty of challenges for Josh Allen and company however, and a conservative game plan may still be in order out of the gates. The Patriots will likely still want to lean on a heavy dose of the run, as the Bills are better vs. the pass defensively.

Mac Jones showed some grit in the Patriots' Week 15 loss to the Colts, so it will be interesting to see if New England opens the playbook a bit more out of the gates in this one. The Patriots are 9-5 vs. the spread this season and 4-3 against it at home. The Patriots are just 3-4 at home outright this season however as they have been better on the road. This is going to be a hard-fought game that could come down to the fourth quarter.

Final Bills-Patriots Prediction and Pick

This one is a toss up as both teams need it badly. The Bills likely won't struggle on offense as badly in this one as they did in Week 13, while the Patriots might also take a more aggressive offensive approach. The over is appealing in this spot for these reasons, and the Bills getting points are as well. Take the Bills in this spot, and if you're feeling lucky, ride the over as well.

Final Bills-Patriots Prediction & Pick: Bills +1 (-110), Over 43.5 (-110)