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The Cleveland Browns will take on the Cincinnati Bengals in a crucial AFC North matchup in Week 9. It's time to continue our NFL odds series and make a Browns-Bengals prediction and pick.
Both of these teams need a victory in this game. After a brief three-game winning streak, the Browns have fallen back to a .500 record. That's good for last in the hotly contested AFC North, and a loss to a divisional rival in this one would deal a huge blow to Cleveland's playoff chances. A loss here wouldn't cripple Cincinnati's chances of winning the division, but it would certainly set them back quite a bit. The Bengals are currently a half-game back of the Baltimore Ravens, who take on the Minnesota Vikings in Week 9. That's a game the Ravens could easily lose, making this week a huge opportunity for the Bengals.
For our conversation about Browns-Bengals on the Establish the Pass podcast, click below:
Here's how the bookmakers have set the Browns-Bengals odds.
NFL Odds: Browns-Bengals Odds
Cleveland Browns: +2.5 (-114)
Cincinnati Bengals: -2.5 (-106)
Over: 47 (-110)
Under: 47 (-110)
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Why The Browns Can Cover The Spread
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Cleveland owns one of the most underrated defensive units in the NFL. The Browns have held their opponents to less than 20 points in four games this season, including a stellar performance against the high-powered Minnesota Vikings where Cleveland only allowed seven points. They allow the seventh-least pass yards in the NFL, a stat that will play well against Cincinnati's great passing attack. The Browns also have the pass-rushers up front that can wreak havoc on a very mediocre Bengals offensive line. Cleveland is set to disrupt Cincinnati's streak of elite offensive showings in this one.
While it's true that the Bengals have been fantastic against opposing run games, the same can't be said about their abilities in pass defense. Cincinnati is a bottom-ten unit against the pass in terms of yardage, which is something that the Browns should be able to take advantage of. The Bengals also don't have the personnel to consistently pressure Browns quarterback Baker Mayfield. This should be one of Cleveland's best days through the air in this season.
Why The Bengals Can Cover The Spread
Cincinnati matches up almost perfectly to the Browns. Cleveland is obviously a run-first offense, and the Bengals are the seventh-best run defense in the NFL by yardage allowed per game. Head coach Zac Taylor's defense is also only allowing 3.9 yards per carry. Whenever the Browns are forced to pass the ball they completely collapse on offense. Cleveland was playing from behind against the Arizona Cardinals, forcing them to throw the ball double the amount of times they ran it. The Browns ended with 14 points on the scoreboard. Cincinnati is certainly capable of following a similar game plan and locking up Cleveland's offense.
While it's true that the Browns remain underrated on defense, the same can be said about the Bengals' offense. Quarterback Joe Burrow has led his unit to three consecutive games with more than 30 points. The running game has looked shockingly strong, with running back Joe Mixon ranking fifth in the entire league in rushing yards. Everything is clicking for this offense, and the Browns have already shown a propensity to allow huge scoring days to good offensive teams. The Cardinals posted 37 on Cleveland, and the Los Angeles Chargers dropped a whopping 47 points in their game against the Browns. The Bengals aren't on the same level as those teams, but they should be able to score without too much difficulty in this one.
Final Browns-Bengals Prediction & Pick
This is an easy pick. It's a total shock to see the Bengals as a favorite by less than a touchdown at home, but it's time to capitalize on that. Lock in Cincinnati with confidence.
FINAL BROWNS-BENGALS PREDICTION & PICK: Cincinnati Bengals -2.5 (-106)
