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The New England Patriots will travel to the west coast to face the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 8 action. It's time to continue our NFL odds series and make a Patriots-Chargers prediction and pick.
This matchup is an interesting measuring stick for the Los Angeles. Last season, the Chargers went to Foxboro to play New England and left with a humiliating blowout defeat. The result of this one will show a lot about the progress that quarterback Justin Herbert and the rest of the roster has made.
An upset victory for New England would do wonders for rookie quarterback Mac Jones' confidence, as well as put the Patriots in actual contention for a wild card spot in the AFC. This should be an entertaining contest no matter who wins, so let's get into the pick.
Here's how the bookmakers have set the odds for Sunday's Patriots-Chargers matchup.
NFL Odds: Patriots-Chargers Odds
New England Patriots +4 (-110)
Los Angeles Chargers -4 (-110)
Over 49 1/2 points (-110)
Under 49 1/2 points (-110)
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Why The Patriots Can Cover The Spread
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New England dominated this matchup last season through their defense. They didn't allow a single point to Herbert and this Chargers offense while also forcing a couple of turnovers. They obviously won't be able to repeat that performance, but there's a chance they put together a solid defensive showing in this one. New England has been great at harassing opposing passers recently, as they've notched five sacks and 15 quarterback hits over their last three games. The Patriots also allow a 62% completion percentage to opposing passers, a shockingly low number. The Baltimore Ravens just shut down Justin Herbert, and New England's defense is actually pretty similar to Baltimore's in terms of personnel. This won't be an easy game for the Los Angeles offense.
No one thinks of the Chargers as a bad defense, but they are just that when it comes to stopping the run. Los Angeles ranks dead last in the NFL in rushing yards allowed, as they give up an average of 162 yards on the ground per game. The Patriots have shown that they are capable of leaning on the ground game, and that's exactly what will happen here. New England will use the blueprint laid out by Baltimore to grind the ball slowly down the field while keeping the potent Chargers offense on the sideline. Running back Damien Harris is coming off of back-to-back 100-yard games, and that streak should stay alive here.
Why The Chargers Can Cover The Spread
It is undeniable that Los Angeles has a far more explosive offense than the Patriots do. Herbert is a legitimate MVP candidate, wide receiver Mike Williams is finally playing up to his status as a top-ten pick, and running back Austin Ekeler has been fantastic. The last time that New England played a comparable offense, they allowed 35 points to the Dallas Cowboys. This is also the same Patriots defense that got torn apart by Houston Texans quarterback Davis Mills. New England has been an inconsistent defensive unit coming into this game, and now they face one of the best offenses in the NFL coming off of a bye week at home.
While the Chargers have one of the worst home field advantages in the NFL, it will certainly come into play in this game. The Patriots are always a dominant team at home, so getting them on the road here makes a huge difference. It also helps that the Chargers play in a dome, making the weather a non-factor. New England won't be getting any help from the crowd or the elements in this one.
Final Chargers-Patriots Prediction & Pick
It's a complete shock to see the Chargers getting less than a touchdown in this game. This is a mistake by the books, and it's time to take full advantage. Lock in Los Angeles with plenty of confidence here, as they're the more talented team by a mile.
FINAL PATRIOTS-CHARGERS PREDICTION & PICK: Los Angeles Chargers -4 (-110)
