The Tampa Bay Lightning will head to Long Island to take on the New York Islanders in Game 3 of the NHL Stanley Cup playoff semifinals. It’s time to continue our NHL odds series and make a Lightning-Islanders Game 3 prediction and pick.

The Lightning-Islanders odds swung back to Tampa after New York prevailed in Game 1. The Lightning, who are the defending NHL champions, roared back in Game 2 and solidly defeated the Isles, 4-2. The series heads to venerable Nassau Coliseum in Uniondale, N.Y., tied at one game apiece. This series is a rematch of the 2020 NHL playoff semifinal series which the Bolts won in six games in the pandemic bubble in Edmonton, Alberta.

Here’s how sportsbooks have set the Lightning-Islanders odds.

NHL Odds: Lightning-Islanders Game 3 Odds

Tampa Bay Lightning -1.5 (+200)

New York Islanders +1.5 (-240)

Over 5 goals (+123)

Under 5 goals (-135)

Moneyline: Lightning -129, Islanders +117

Why The Lightning Could Cover The Spread

The Tampa Bay Lightning have struggled in recent NHL postseasons in one specific respect, but it has nothing to do with the Islanders in particular, and it definitely has nothing to do with road games:

The key note to make is that the Lightning — not including the 2020 bubble run to the Stanley Cup — have regularly bounced back in a series after losing their first home game in that series. This team is resilient. It shrugs off defeats. It generally rises to the top.

Article Continues Below
More Betting News
Dvalishvili O'Malley prediction, UFC 316 odds
Merab Dvalishvili vs. Sean O’Malley 2 prediction, odds, pick for UFC 316Dominik Zawartko ·
Pena Harrison prediction, ufc 316 odds
Julianna Pena vs. Kayla Harrison prediction, odds, pick for UFC 316Garrett Kerman ·
Gastelum Pyfer prediction, UFC 316 odds
Kelvin Gastelum vs. Joe Pyfer prediction, odds, pick for UFC 316Dominik Zawartko ·
Bautista Mix prediction, ufc 316 odds
Mario Bautista vs. Patchy Mix prediction, odds, pick for UFC 316Dominik Zawartko ·
Luque Holland prediction, ufc 316 odds
Vicente Luque vs. Kevin Holland prediction, odds, pick for UFC 316Garrett Kerman ·
Silva Van prediction, ufc 316 odds
Bruno Silva vs. Joshua Van prediction, odds, pick for UFC 316Garrett Kerman ·

Here's proof of how resilient the Lightning truly are:

You might rightly point out that in Game 3 against the Islanders, the Lightning aren't coming off a loss. True enough… but the bigger point about the facts mentioned above (losing the first home game of a series, winning those series anyway, and always coming through after a loss within a series) is that they show that Tampa plays according to well-established patterns. This is a team you can count on — usually in a good way, but sometimes in a bad way (losing the first home game in a series).

Making a Lightning-Islanders Game 3 prediction should be informed by reading and analyzing Tampa's patterns. They are clear… and here's the one which makes the case for picking the Bolts on Thursday in Nassau Coliseum:

The Tampa Bay Lightning are 5-1 on the road, straight up, in the 2021 NHL postseason. The Bolts won twice on the road in the first round against the Florida Panthers. They won three times on the road in the second round against the Carolina Hurricanes. This is a team which has earned total trust in playoff road games. The 2020 bubble was a neutral-site tournament, but it's worth noting that the Lightning were able to dominate in that context, which did not involve a single true home game.

Why The Islanders Could Cover The Spread

If your Lightning-Islanders Game 3 prediction is going to be for the home team on Long Island, the best reason is to trust New York goaltender Semyon Varlamov. He was shaken up in Game 2, due to a collision with Tampa's Brayden Point. It was announced several hours before the start of Game 3 that Varlamov will start. He wasn't even a game-time decision. He is clearly healthy enough to play. Given how well he has performed in these playoffs, lifting the Isles past arguably more talented squads — the Pittsburgh Penguins and Boston Bruins — Varlamov has earned the benefit of the doubt here.

Final Lightning-Islanders Game 3 Prediction & Pick

A 5-1 road record in the 2021 playoffs shows that the Lightning simply do not get rattled. This is the best team in the NHL with the Colorado Avalanche having been eliminated from the playoffs. The Bolts beat the Islanders in six last year. There's little reason to think they won't do the same this year. If you think Tampa will win this series in six, it stands to reason the champs will get the job done in Game 3. They'll include an empty-net goal to win by more than one goal on the Island.

FINAL PICK: Tampa Bay Lightning -1.5 (+200)