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The Phillies head back to Philadelphia to host the Padres for Game 3 of the NLCS! It's time to continue our MLB odds series with a Padres-Phillies prediction and pick.
The San Diego Padres tied the series at one apiece Wednesday afternoon with a gritty come-from-behind victory. Many teams would have folded in that situation, instead, the Friars slowly battled back to take the lead against a hot Phillies team. Down 4-0, San Diego scored eight unanswered to take an 8-4 lead after scoring five runs in the fifth inning. Manny Machado capped it off with a moonshot to deep left-center field and they ended up winning a must-win game.
The Phillies started out hot by finding a way to score four runs in the 2nd inning off of Blake Snell. They were just unable to capitalize after a rough fifth inning. The offense is still on fire as Bryce Harper is leading the way. He and Machado are tied with four homers this postseason. In the two games at home against the Atlanta Braves in the NLDS, the Phils scored nine runs in Game 3 and then eight runs in Game 4. Philadelphia will host the next three games.
Here are the Padres-Phillies Game 3 MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
NLCS Odds: Padres-Phillies Odds
San Diego Padres: -1.5 (+142)
Philadelphia Phillies: +1.5 (-172)
Over: 7.5 (-106)
Under: 7.5 (-114)
Why The Padres Could Cover The Spread
Starting for the Padres in Game 3 is Joe Musgrove. In two postseason games so far, the right-hander is (1-0) with a 1.38 ERA in 13 innings. He pitched seven scoreless innings against the New York Mets in the Wild Card round as the Mets managed to only get one hit. He followed that up with a six-inning outing against the Los Angeles Dodgers allowing just two runs off of six hits. Musgrove has been elite so far and will look to continue that on the road against the Phillies.
The offense bounced back in a must-win situation after finishing Game 1 with just one hit and no runs. Everyone in the lineup contributed with a hit except for one. Machado, Josh Bell, Brandon Drury, and Austin Nola were key in the victory as their timely hits allowed for the comeback. Nola singled in a run against his brother Aaron Nola as the older brother has really been on fire this postseason. If the lineup can continue to hit like they did on Wednesday then they should be able to cover this spread. They did a good job of forcing five relievers from the pen early in the series.
Why The Phillies Could Cover The Spread
On the bump for Philadelphia is Ranger Suarez. The southpaw pitched just three innings against the Braves allowing three hits and one run. He walked five batters and that is a bad sign going against the Padres team. SD has one of the lowest swing rates in the league and Juan Soto leads the MLB with the lowest swing rate. The Padres are not afraid to take pitches so Suarez must be able to find the zone Friday night. Back in late June, he pitched 7.1 innings allowing seven hits and two runs against SD so this won't be the first time he faces a majority of the lineup.
In 31 ABs so far for Harper, he has a .419 batting average and 1.390 OPS. Every at-bat seems like he will smash the ball somewhere and the lineup is benefitting from it. Everyone is finding ways to get on base whether it's a homer or a bloop single and that is all that matters in the postseason. The Phillies are riding high when playing at home and there is no doubt the offense will be a factor for them for the next three games. Nick Castellanos is someone who needs to get back on track and if he does then the Padres' pitching staff will have a serious problem.
Final Padres-Phillies Prediction & Pick
The Padres are favored in this game, however, I think the Phillies' offense plays a huge role in this game. The offense should keep them to within one run and taking the Phillies along with the over is the call to make here.
Final Padres-Phillies Prediction & Pick: Phillies +1.5 (-172); Over 7.5 (-106)
