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Northern Illinois continues its season in Week 9 when they take on Ball State. It is time to continue our college football odds series with a Northern Illinois-Ball State prediction and pick.
In Week 9, Northern Illinois faces Ball State in a critical Mid-American Conference clash. The Huskies (4-3) enter as 12.5-point favorites, looking to capitalize on Ball State's defensive struggles. Northern Illinois boasts a balanced attack, but their passing game has been inconsistent, averaging just 185.4 yards per game. However, they can exploit Ball State's porous defense, which allows an alarming 310.9 passing yards per game.
Ball State (2-5) must find a way to establish their ground game and create explosive plays to stay competitive. They’ve struggled offensively, averaging only 25.1 points per game. If the Cardinals can limit turnovers and capitalize on Northern Illinois's mistakes, they could make this a closer contest than expected. With both teams needing a win to bolster their conference standings, expect a hard-fought battle at Scheumann Stadium, where Northern Illinois aims to assert their dominance while Ball State seeks redemption.
Here are the Northern Illinois-Ball State College Football odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
College Football Odds: Northern Illinois-Ball State Odds
Northern Illinois: -12.5 (+100)
Moneyline: -430
Ball State: +12.5 (-122)
Moneyline: +330
Over: 47.5 (-105)
Under: 47.5 (-115)
How to Watch Northern Illinois vs. Ball State
Time: 3:30 PM ET/12:30 PM PT
TV: ESPN+
Stream: fuboTV (Free Trial)
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Why Northern Illinois Could Cover The Spread/Win
- ATS Record: 4-2-1
- Over/Under: 2-4
- Head to Head Last 10: 6-4 SU / 7-3 ATS
Northern Illinois is poised to secure a decisive road victory against Ball State in Week 9, leveraging their offensive prowess and exploiting the Cardinals' defensive vulnerabilities. The Huskies' balanced attack, which has been particularly effective on the road this season, will be the key to their success. Northern Illinois boasts a perfect 3-0 record against the spread in away games, demonstrating their ability to perform under pressure in hostile environments. Quarterback Josh Holst has shown improvement throughout the season, and his ability to manage the game effectively will be crucial against Ball State's struggling defense, which allows an alarming 310.9 passing yards per game – the worst among FBS defenses. The Huskies' ground game, led by Antario Brown, will also play a significant role in controlling the tempo and wearing down the Cardinals' defense.
Defensively, Northern Illinois has been opportunistic, with a 7-1 record when intercepting at least one pass since the 2023 season – the fifth-best mark among Non-Power Conference teams. This ability to create turnovers will be crucial against a Ball State offense that has struggled to find consistency, averaging only 25.1 points per game. Moreover, the Huskies have a strong motivational factor in seeking revenge for last year's surprising 20-17 loss to Ball State in DeKalb. Historical trends favor Northern Illinois in this situation, as double-digit road favorites in revenge scenarios have gone 51-37 ATS (58%) since 2016. With Ball State's defense allowing 42 or more points per game, the Huskies are well-positioned to exploit this weakness and cover the spread, as teams in similar situations have gone 214-166 ATS (56.3%) since 2016. All these factors point to a convincing Northern Illinois victory on the road.
Why Ball State Could Cover The Spread/Win
- ATS Record: 4-3
- Over/Under: 6-1
- Head to Head Last 10: 4-6 SU / 3-7 ATS
Ball State is positioned to upset Northern Illinois at home in Week 9, leveraging their home-field advantage and recent competitive performances. Despite a challenging season, the Cardinals have shown resilience, particularly in covering the spread in eight of their last eleven games. Their ability to perform well in the first quarter, hitting the moneyline in five of their last eight games, indicates a strong start could set the tone against Northern Illinois. Ball State's high-tempo offense, led by Coach Brandon Berger, aims to exploit mismatches with quick passing plays and versatile formations, which could keep Northern Illinois off balance.
Defensively, Ball State will focus on disciplined play and solid tackling to counter Northern Illinois's potent rushing attack. By maintaining gap responsibilities and limiting explosive plays, the Cardinals can stifle the Huskies' offensive production. Historical trends also favor Ball State's chances; they have been more competitive against the spread, holding a 4-3 record compared to Northern Illinois's struggles as a favorite. Additionally, Ball State's recent victory over Northern Illinois in 2022 provides a psychological edge and confidence boost. With a lively home crowd at Scheumann Stadium and a strategic approach on both sides of the ball, Ball State is well-positioned to secure a much-needed win and gain momentum in the Mid-American Conference standings.
Final Northern Illinois-Ball State Prediction & Pick
In the Week 9 matchup, Northern Illinois is favored by 12.5 points against Ball State, and the Huskies are likely to cover. Northern Illinois (4-3) has a strong running game, averaging 215 rushing yards per game, which will exploit Ball State’s porous defense that allows 492.1 yards and over 42 points per game. The Huskies have been effective on the road, going 3-0 against the spread in away games this season.
Ball State (2-5) has struggled offensively, averaging just 20 points per game and failing to find consistency. With Northern Illinois’s defense allowing only 16.6 points per game, they should be able to contain the Cardinals’ attack. Given Ball State's defensive vulnerabilities and Northern Illinois's ability to control the game on the ground, expect the Huskies to secure a convincing victory and cover the spread comfortably.
Final Northern Illinois-Ball State Prediction & Pick: Northern Illinois -12.5 (+100), Under 47.5 (-115)
