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The Denver Nuggets will travel to the heart of Texas to face the Dallas Mavericks. It will be a battle at American Airlines Arena as we share our NBA odds series and make a Nuggets-Mavericks prediction and pick.
The Mavericks lead the head-to-head series 98-93. Ultimately, the Mavs and Nuggets have split two games in Denver this season, with the Mavericks winning the last game 123-120 in a nailbiter. The Mavs and Nuggets have split the last 10 games, and the Mavericks are 4-1 in the past five games against the Nuggets at American Airlines Arena.
Here are the Nyggets-Mavericks NBA odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
NBA Odds: Nuggets-Mavericks Odds
Denver Nuggets: -4 (-110)
Moneyline: -174
Dallas Mavericks: +4 (-110)
Moneyline: +146
Over: 228 (-110)
Under: 228 (-110)
How To Watch Nuggets vs. Mavericks
Time: 3 PM ET/12 PM PT
TV: KFAA and ALT
*Watch NBA games LIVE with fuboTV (Get Access | Save $30)*
Why the Nuggets Could Cover the Spread/Win
The Nuggets have all their pieces available and ready to go into Dallas and win. Before going into why they could cover the spread, it's essential to detail why they could not in the past two games against the Mavericks. Specifically, slow starts and bad defense have been the main culprits.
When the Nuggets welcomed the Mavericks into Ball Arena in the last game, they simply could not stop them. They trailed 73-57 at halftime. Eventually, they rallied from that deficit and nearly shocked the Mavs, just falling short, losing by three points. What made that game worse was the fact that the Mavs were doing this without Luka Doncic. Now, the Mavs won't have Doncic or Kyrie Irving. That gives the Nuggets the advantage.
Nikola Jokic remains one of the best in the world, as he comes into this game averaging 31.6 points, 13 rebounds, and 9.9 assists per game while shooting 55.6 percent from the floor. Likewise, Jamal Murray averages 19 points and 6.2 assists per game while shooting 43.6 percent from the floor but is questionable to play in this game because of knee soreness. Michael Porter Jr. is excellent with 19 points per game while shooting 52.1 percent from the floor. Also, Russell Westbrook has been a solid addition for the Nuggets and is averaging 12.9 points per game.
The Nuggets have struggled from the charity stripe, ranking 27th in free-throw shooting percentage. Therefore, it's no surprise that their inability to hit them cost them the game against the Mavs the last time.
The Nuggets will cover the spread if they can get off to a better start and play better defense to start the game. Then, they must hit their shots from the free-throw line.
Why the Mavericks Could Cover the Spread/Win
The latest Irving injury update revealed that he is still not doing any basketball activities. Unfortunately, it looks like he will not be ready for a while, as he has dealt with back soreness since New Year's Day. Despite not having Doncic or Irving, the Mavericks have still managed a 2-3 record, including a win over the Los Angeles Lakers. But the schedule will get slightly tougher, as the Mavs face the Nuggets for two straight games at home and will face the Oklahoma City Thunder next week.
Klay Thompson is available and will attempt to bounce back from a quiet game. Overall, he has been solid for the Mavericks, averaging 13.8 points per game while shooting 41.4 percent from the floor. P.J. Washington has also been solid, averaging 13.4 points and 7.7 rebounds per game while shooting 43.6 percent from the floor. Daniel Gafford has been solid, averaging 11.4 points and six rebounds per game while shooting 70.9 percent from the floor.
The Mavericks have been elite on the defensive end, ranking fifth in blocked shots. Ultimately, their best bet is to try and contain Jokic in the paint and not allow others to hurt them.
The Mavericks will cover the spread if they can get off to a hot start and convert their chances at the line. Then, they must continue to defend the rim well, and not let Jokic dominate them.
Final Nuggets-Mavericks Prediction & Pick
The Nuggets are 17-19-1 against the spread, while the Mavericks are 19-18-1 against the odds. Moreover, the Nuggets are 8-10 against the spread on the road, while the Mavs are 10-8 against the odds at home. The Nuggets are 12-11-1 against the spread when facing the Western Conference, while the Mavericks are 14-14-1 against the odds when facing the conference.
The Mavs stunned the Nuggets without Jokic in the first one. However, doing it again, and this time without Irving, is a tall task to ask. Therefore, I can see the Nuggets finding a way to go into Dallas and handling the Mavericks while covering the spread.
Final Nuggets -Mavericks Prediction & Pick: Denver Nuggets: -4 (-110)
