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Another high-stakes SEC matchup ensues on Saturday when No. 122-ranked Missouri (15-4) hosts No. 16-ranked Ole Miss (15-4). It's time to continue our College Basketball odds series with an Ole Miss-Missouri prediction and pick.
Ole Miss entered the week riding high off a win over No. 4-ranked Alabama but has stumbled in its last two games. The Rebels are coming off consecutive losses to Mississippi State and Texas A&M. The losses put them on their first losing streak of the season while dropping their SEC record to 4-2.
Missouri is also coming off a disappointing 61-53 loss to Texas. The result ended a four-game win streak that included a statement win over No. 5-ranked Florida. However, the Tigers have won their last four home games heading into the top-25 matchup with Ole Miss at Mizzou Arena.
Here are the Ole Miss-Missouri College Basketball Odds, courtesy of FanDuel
College Basketball Odds: Ole Miss-Missouri Odds
Ole Miss: +1.5 (-110)
Moneyline: +104
Missouri: -1.5 (-110)
Moneyline: -125
Over: 145.5 (-115)
Under: 145.5 (-105)
How to Watch Ole Miss vs. Missouri
Time: 6 p.m. ET / 3 p.m. PT
TV: SEC Network
*Watch college basketball LIVE with fuboTV (Get Access | Save $30)*
Why Ole Miss Will Cover The Spread/Win
Although these teams have the same straight-up record, Ole Miss is much better against the spread. The Rebels are 13-6 ATS, as opposed to Missouri, which is just 10-9 ATS. Ole Miss has covered in five of its last six games and is a stout 6-1 ATS on the road.
The soul of Chris Beard's team is on the defensive end. Ole Miss has the 10th-best defensive rating on KenPom. They thrive on limiting opponents to 29.3 percent from three, which is 21st in the nation, and forcing the sixth-most turnovers per game. The Rebels are also among the top five in steals, averaging 10.1 takeaways per game.
The Rebels' offense has taken a “by committee” approach for most of the season, but it has been junior forward Malik Dia leading them of late. Dia was stifled in the team's last two losses, scoring just 20 combined points, but has a much softer matchup against Missouri. The Tigers ranked 75th in points in the paint allowed and rank 275th in offensive rebounds allowed, dead last in the SEC.
Why Missouri Will Cover The Spread/Win
With three ranked opponents on deck, Missouri arguably just got caught in a trap game against Texas. That game aside, they topped 75 points in their previous four outings and are averaging 83.2 points per game on the year.
The Tigers have mostly taken a traditional approach to their offense. Their leading scorer, Mark Mitchell, averages just 13.4 points per game. Missouri thrives on getting to the line, which it does at the third-highest rate in the country. Against an Ole Miss team that commits the fifth-most fouls in the SEC, there is a clear path to success.
Dennis Gates has also finally gotten what he wanted out of sixth-year guard Caleb Grill. The 24-year-old veteran has reached double figures in five of his last six games, earning SEC Player of the Week honors in the process. Points on the perimeter are hard to come by against the Rebels but Aden Holloway and Riley Kugel, who both have similar play styles to Grill, have recently realized success against them.
Final Ole Miss-Missouri Prediction & Pick
Missouri will have a lot on its plate over the next week, and it is hard to tell where they are as a team. A bad shooting night does not even begin to describe the Tigers' loss to Texas. The Tigers shot just 32 percent from the field in that game, and only one player, Tamar Bates, reached double figures. Some positive regression is to be expected, but it may not come against this Ole Miss team, which boasts arguably the best defense in the SEC.
Coming off back-to-back one-possession losses, Ole Miss could not enter this game hungrier. They are just a few possessions away from entering this game on a six-game win streak. If that was the case, the line would not be what it currently is.
Missouri has gone under in six of its last seven games. Likewise, Ole Miss has gone under the total in five of its last six games. Both teams are looking to get back on track and will want to pour their focus into the defensive end.
Final Ole Miss-Missouri Prediction & Pick: Ole Miss (+104), Under 145.5 (-105)
