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The Pac-12 Championship is on the line as Oregon and Washington re-match. It is time to continue our College Football odds series with a Pac-12 Championship Oregon-Washington prediction, pick, and how-to-watch.
This is most likely a play-in game for the college football playoffs. Washington is right now ranked third in the playoff rankings, while Oregon is ranked fifth. Oregon comes into the game sitting at 11-1 on the year. They have just one loss on the year, and that was to Washington. In that game, it was a back-and-forth affair. The Ducks took the lead in the first quarter after scoring on a two-point conversion to make it 8-7. After the two teams traded touchdowns before Washington took a lead into the half at 22-18. They would extend the lead to 29-18 in the third, but Oregon scored twice to take a 33-29 fourth-quarter lead. With 1:38 in the game, Washington scored on a two-play 53-yard drive to win the game 36-33.
While Oregon has one loss, Washington is undefeated. It has been a struggle as of late though. Three weeks ago against Utah, they managed to win, but just by seven. Then against Oregon State, it was just a two-point win, and were not able to score in the second half. Last time out, they faced Washington State. After being tied at 14 at the half, Washington scored at the end of the third quarter, but Washington State tied it up with 5:58 left to go in the game. As time expired, Washington hit a field goal to win the game.
Here are the college football odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
Pac-12 Championship Odds: Oregon-Washington Odds
Oregon: -9.5 (-114)
Washington: +9.5 (-106)
Over: 65.5 (-105)
Under: 65.5 (-115)
How to Watch Oregon vs. Washington
Time: 8:00 PM ET/ 5:00 PM PT
TV: ABC
Stream: FuboTV (Click for free trial)
Why Oregon Will Cover The Spread
Oregon is led by Heisman hopeful Bo Nix. He comes into the game completing 312 of 298 passes this year for 3,852 yards and 37 touchdowns. He has thrown just two interceptions this year as well, while having just three turnover-worthy throws according to PFF. Further, he has 16 big-time throws on the year. The last time he faced Washington, he was amazing. Nix completed 33 of 44 passes for 337 yards and two touchdowns in the game. Meanwhile, he did not have a turnover-worthy throw in that game either. Further, he comes into the game hot. In the last two games, he has thrown from 771 yards and eight touchdowns. Nix also has 181 yards rushing this year, with six touchdowns.
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The main man on the ground this year for the ducks has been Bucky Irving. He comes into the game with 1.055 yards on the year on 163 rushes, good for 6.5 yards per attempt this year He has also been great after contact, with 651 yards after first contact this year. Meanwhile, he has ten touchdowns. Joining him with ten rushing touchdowns this year with Jordan James. James comes into the game with 94 rushes for 666 yards on the year, plus the ten scores.
In the receiving game, there are two major players. Troy Frankins leads the team in yards and receptions this year, coming into the game with 77 receptions for 1,349 yards on the year. He has also scored 14 times this year. Tez Johnson comes in with 942 years this year. He has done this by being highly reliable. Johnson has brought in 70 of 87 targets this year, good for over 80 percent. Johnson has also scored nine times this year.
The Oregon defense ranks seventh in the nation this year in points allowed per game. Still, they are 82nd in forcing turnovers this year. Oregon has forced just 15 turnovers this year. The Oregon pass rush does have 31 sacks this year, led by Evan Williams. Williams has just 16 pass rushes this year from his safety position, but when he goes, it works. Williams leads the team with five sacks on the season. Brandon Dorlus is the top defensive lineman, coming into the game with four sacks on 42 pressures. Still, there is some concern in coverage. Tysheem Johnson is number one on the team in pass coverage shapes. He has allowed 42 receptions for 515 yards and four scores but does have two interceptions.
Why Washington Will Cover The Spread
It is Michael Penix Jr. who leads this Washington offense. He comes into the game with 281 completions on 428 attempts this year, for 3,903 yards and 32 touchdowns. The last time he faced Oregon, he threw for 302 yards and four scores in the game. Still, he has struggled often since that game. His last two games have been some of the worst of the year for him. In the last two games, he has just 366 yards passing with four scores and an interception. On the year, Penix does have eight interceptions, with one of them coming in the last game against Oregon. Penix is not the same threat as Nix on the ground either, but he does have three rushing touchdowns this year, with all of them coming in the last four games.
The ground game for Washington has been fully led by Dillon Johnson. He comes into the game with 955 yards this year and has scored 12 times. He has been solid in making guys miss, with 35 forced missed tackles, and also 523 yards after contact this year. The last time Johnson faced Oregon, he ran for 100 yards and a touchdown in the game.
Still, the big playmaker for Washington is Rome Odunze. He comes into another game with 73 receptions this year, good for 1,326 yards on the season. Odunze has also scored 13 times this year for Washington. Meanwhile, he is coming down with nearly 70 percent of his contested catches on the season. Second on the team this year is Ja'Lynn Polk. Polk has 55 receptions on the year for 943 yards and eight scored.
On defense, Washington ranks 49th in the nation in points allowed per game this year, at 23.0. Still, they are 55th in the nation in turnovers created, with 17. On the pass rush, Washington has been led by Bralen Trice. He has six sacks this year but also has 64 pressures, with 15 quarterback hits. Meanwhile, Zio Tupuol-Fetui comes in with four sacks of his own and 23 pressures. In coverage, Jabbar Muhammas has been solid. He has allowed two touchdowns this year but also has nine pass breakups and three interceptions on the year.
Final Oregon-Washington Prediction & Pick
Oregon fell shot in the regular season meeting between the two teams. Part of that could be attributed to coaching though, and some questionable calls from Dan Lanning. Momentum is on the Oregon side though. They have been playing better, and Washington is now just scraping by in games. Still, the prediction in this Oregon-Washington Pac-12 Championship game is that Washington will play better than they have in the last month. It may not be enough to get the win, as Bo Nix tries to secure a Heisman, but it will get the cover.
Final Oregon-Washington Prediction & Pick: Washington +9.5 (-106)
