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The Padres travel to Houston to face the Astros! The Padres have been one of the best teams in the MLB to start the year, while the Astros have been inconsistent in comparison. It's time to continue our MLB odds series with a Padres-Astros prediction and pick.
Padres-Astros Projected Starters
Kyle Hart vs. Ryan Gusto
Kyle Hart (2-0) with a 5.40 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP
Last Start: Allowed zero runs on one hit with zero walks and four strikeouts through six innings
Away Splits: (0-0) 67.50 ERA
Ryan Gusto (1-1) with a 3.00 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP
Last Start: Allowed three runs on four hits with one walk and six strikeouts through four innings
Home Splits: (0-1) 4.50 ERA
Here are the MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Padres-Astros Odds
San Diego Padres: +1.5 (-184)
Moneyline: +116
Houston Astros: -1.5 (+152)
Moneyline: -136
Over: 9 (-105)
Under: 9 (-115)
How to Watch Padres vs. Astros
Time: 8:10 pm ET/5:10 pm PT
TV: Space City Home Network/SDPA
*Watch MLB games LIVE with fuboTV (Get Access | Save $30)*
Why The Padres Will Cover The Spread/Win
The Padres were great last season on their way to a 93-69 record, and they have jumped out to a 15-4 record this season and have won six of their last seven games. The key is with their offense, where they were the best in the MLB last season and have been second in the league so far. In comparison, their pitching was also solid, and they started the season red-hot and jumped into the top two of the league. Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado, Xander Bogaerts, Jackson Merrill, Luis Arraez, and Jake Cronenworth have been the biggest keys to their offensive success. Their pitching has also been excellent, thanks to Michael King, Dylan Cease, and Nick Pivetta playing well to start the season.
The Padres are starting Kyle Hart on the mound. He has a 2-0 record, a 5.40 ERA, and a 1.11 WHIP. He's allowed seven runs on eight hits with five walks and eight strikeouts across 11 innings in the three games he has appeared in. Hart also has a 1.6 K/BB ratio. Despite his struggles, the Padres have won all three games in which he has appeared. The Astros have talent, but have struggled behind the plate so far, so JHart might be able to play well in this game.
The Padres' offense has been great this year and is already in the top two in the MLB. They were first in team batting average last season at .263, and they have opened the year with a .274 batting average, which is good for second in the league. Tatis Jr. highlights the offense, but they have so much depth. Tatis Jr. leads in batting average at .348, in home runs with six, in RBI with 14, in OBP at .425, and in total hits with 24. The Padres have a loaded batting lineup, and they should be able to play well against Gusto on the mound for the Astros. This is the matchup that should decide the game.
Why The Astros Will Cover The Spread/Win
The Astros are the current model of consistency for the MLB, and had an 88-73 record last year. The Astros have been inconsistent this year with an 8-10 record, and have gone 2-3 in their previous five games. They were a top-three offense in the MLB last season and sixth in total pitching ERA. Their offense has been one of the worst in the MLB this year, while the pitching has been solid. Jose Altuve, Jeremy Pena, Yainer Diaz, Isaac Paredes, Yordan Alvarez, and Christian Walker were added to an already loaded offense in the offseason. Hunter Brown and Hayden Wesneski have been solid in the starting pitching rotation. The Astros have talent but need to dig out of their slow start.
The Astros are starting Ryan Gusto on the mound. He has a 1-1 record, a 3.00 ERA, and a 1.00 WHIP. He has allowed four runs on nine hits with three walks and 15 strikeouts through 12 innings in five appearances this season. His K/BB ratio is also five. Despite his overall solid play, the Astros are 1-4 in his five appearances; Gusto gets a massive challenge against a loaded Padres offense. Gusto is a good pitcher, but this offense is a big challenge.
The Astros' offense was the third-best in the MLB this season, but they have struggled this year. They are third in batting average at .262. Altuve, Alvarez, and Paredes have been great for this offense and have been the biggest standouts. Altuve leads in batting average at .311, home runs with three, and total hits with 23. Then, Alvarez leads in RBI with 10, and Paredes leads in OBP at .350. This offense is loaded with talent, but they have been disappointed and unable to do much behind the plate.
Final Padres-Astros Prediction & Pick
The Padres are the better team, and I think they cover and win outright. Gusto should slow down the Padres, but I don't think it will matter much.
Final Padres-Astros Prediction & Pick: San Diego Padres +1.5 (-184)
