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The San Diego Padres and Tampa Bay Rays begin their three-game series on Friday night. The Rays are one game below .500 and are waiting for the season to end after selling off some integral pieces at the trade deadline. However, it's been a different story for the Padres, as they have clawed their way back into the playoff race. They are two games up on the second spot and five behind the Los Angeles Dodgers for first in the National League West. The Padres are attempting to get their season back on track after losing two games in a row and winning just five of their last ten. The Rays have been spiraling, losing five of their past seven. It's time to continue our MLB odds series with a Padres-Rays prediction and pick.
Padres-Rays Projected Starters
Randy Vasquez vs. Shane Baz
Randy Vasquez is 4-6 with a 4.52 ERA and a 1.49 WHIP.
Vasquez's last start was on the road against the Pittsburgh Pirates. He pitched 5 2/3 innings with 3 strikeouts, allowing 6 hits, 1 walk, and 3 earned runs.
Vasquez is 3-3 on the road with a 5.67 ERA and a 1.65 WHIP. The record may not reflect it, but Vasquez has been much better at home.
Shane Baz is 1-2 with a 3.48 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP.
Baz's last start was on the road against the Oakland Athletics. He battled hard with a 1-0 victory, pitching 7 2/3 innings with 4 strikeouts. He allowed 3 hits, 3 walks, and no earned runs.
Baz is 0-1 at home with a 4.15 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP.
Here are the MLB Odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Padres-Rays Odds
San Diego Padres: +1.5 (-200)
Moneyline: +102
Tampa Bay Rays: -1.5 (+164)
Moneyline: -120
Over: 7.5 (-122)
Under: 7.5 (+100)
How to Watch Padres vs. Rays
Time: 4:10 PM ET/1:10 PM PT
TV: MLB.TV
Stream: fuboTV (Free Trial)
Why The Padres Will Cover The Spread/Win
The Rays seem to be packing it in after a tough season, hitting just .187 with a .233 on-base percentage, and 2.5 runs/nine over their last ten games. The Rays scored three or more runs just four times in their past ten games, which should set the Padres up to emerge victorious in this series. The Padres have been hitting the ball well against right-handed pitching over their last ten, averaging .270 with a .330 on-base percentage and 5.1 runs/nine.
Randy Vasquez has performed well for the Padres over his last five games. He allowed six runs in one start against the Baltimore Orioles but allowed two or fewer runs in three of those five. Baz was able to outduel the Athletics in his last outing, but the Padres offense won't be as easy to keep at bay.
Why The Rays Will Cover The Spread/Win
The Rays could be struggling this season, but they have maintained their reputation as a difficult bullpen. They have a 3.09 ERA overall and a 3.96 mark over their last five games. The bullpen has been one of the weak spots for the Padres, owning a 4.96 ERA over their past three games.
The Rays will need Baz to build on his outing in Oakland. He was lights out in that start, allowing just three hits and getting two outs in the eighth inning with just 92 pitches. The Rays have been cautious with Baz's pitch count, but he could have gone farther into that game.
Final Padres-Rays Prediction & Pick
The Padres have plenty to play for and the pitching matchup in this game is close to even. Vasquez may even hold the edge on Baz, who has the benefit of some weaker opponents in his last few starts. The Padres can't lose games against a team like the Rays this late in the season, and you should expect them to get the job done here.
Final Padres-Rays Prediction & Pick: Padres +1.5 (-200)
