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The Patriots are struggling this year, while the Bills are one of the best teams in the league this season. It is time to continue our NFL odds series with a Patriots-Bills prediction and pick.
Patriots-Bills Last Game – Matchup History
This is the first matchup between the two teams this year. The Bills have dominated the rivalry recently, but they split their meetings last year, with both teams winning at home. This year, these two teams are very different, with the Patriots waiting for next year, while the Bills are in the running for the top seed in the AFC playoffs.
Overall Series: Patriots lead 78-50-1
Here are the Patriots-Bills NFL odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
NFL Odds: Patriots-Bills Odds
New England Patriots: +14.5 (-120)
Moneyline: +700
Buffalo Bills: -14.5 (-102)
Moneyline: -1100
Over: 46.5 (-110)
Under: 46.5 (-110)
How to Watch Patriots vs. Bills
Time: 4:25 pm ET/1:25 pm PT
TV: CBS
*Watch NFL games LIVE with fuboTV (Get Access | Save $30)*
Why The Patriots Could Cover The Spread/Win
The Patriots have struggled this season on offense. They average 292.4 yards per game and score 17 points per game. The offense has looked better under Drake Maye, but it is still not great. He has 1,898 passing yards, 12 touchdowns, and nine interceptions, with a 68.5% completion percentage. The receivers have struggled this season, with Hunter Henry leading the way at tight end with 635 receiving yards and one touchdown on 65 receptions. The running game is the key with Rhamondre Stevenson in the backfield. He has 740 yards and six touchdowns on 193 carries. This offense has been struggling and faces a massive test against the Bills and their defense. Drake Maye has been a genuine bright spot at quarterback but does not have much help next to him. He is in for a long day in this game against the Bills and their defense.
The Patriots' defense has been inconsistent this season. They allow 344.8 yards per game and 24.1 points per game. They are solid against the pass but struggle against the run, allowing 216.7 yards through the air and 127.4 yards on the ground. The defense has some talent, with Davon Godschaux, Keion White, and Anfernee Jennings up front and Kyle Dugger, Jabrill Peppers, and Christian Gonzalez in the secondary. The defense has potential, but it has faced its fair share of issues this year. They are beat up, too, which is a bad matchup leading into this game against the Bills. Josh Allen and the Bills offense have the talent to score all over this defense, and they should overwhelm them at home.
Why The Bills Could Cover The Spread/Win
The Bills have been great this season and led by their offense. They average 369.6 yards per game and are scoring 31.8 points per game. They are seventh in total offense and second in scoring. The offense is tied to how Josh Allen plays this year because he has been an MVP-caliber player this season. He has 3,395 passing yards, 25 touchdowns, and five interceptions with a 64.4% completion percentage. The receiving corps has been balanced and improved as the season continues. Khalil Shakir has been solid in the receiving corps and leads the team with 774 receiving yards and four touchdowns on 71 receptions. Thanks to Josh Allen and James Cook, the running game has been great. Allen has 484 yards and 11 touchdowns on 91 carries, and Cook has 828 yards and 13 touchdowns on 171 carries. This Bills offense will be able to score on the Patriots' defense. Allen has been red-hot, and he should be able to continue his hot streak in this game, especially at home.
The Bills' defense has been inconsistent this season. They allow 345.5 yards per game and 22.1 points per game. They have struggled against the pass and played better against the ground game. They allow 227.8 yards through the air and 117.7 yards on the ground. The defense has talent, too, with Greg Rousseau, Ed Oliver, and AJ Epenesa up front. Then, Matt Milano is great in the middle, and Rasul Douglas, Damar Hamlin, and Taylor Rapp are the big standouts in the secondary. This defense needs a matchup like this because they have been struggling these last two weeks to stop anyone. The Patriots are a great matchup and offer a chance for the defense to show up and shut down a struggling offense at home.
Final Patriots-Bills Prediction & Pick
It is a massive spread, but the Bills should cover at home against the Patriots. The Patriots have a lot to build on, thanks to Drake Maye, but they are over-matched in this game. The Bills should move the ball and score all over this defense, and they should find some success with their defense at home, too. The Bills win and cover the big spread at home.
Final Patriots-Bills Prediction & Pick: Buffalo Bills -14.5 (-102)
