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The College Football Playoff finally arrives on Saturday! The #4 Ohio State Buckeyes (11-1) face the #1 Georgia Bulldogs (13-0) in the Peach Bowl. Action kicks off at 8 pm ET. Below we continue our College Football odds series with an Ohio State-Georgia prediction and pick.
Ohio State is 11-1 and finished in second place in the Big 10 East thanks to their loss to Michigan. The Buckeyes are 5-6-1 against the spread while 75% of their games have gone over. Georgia has run the slate, going 13-0 en route to winning the SEC. The Bulldogs are 7-6 against the spread while 62% of their games have gone under. Georgia has a massive travel advantage as they'll travel just 71 miles to Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, GA compared to 570 miles for Ohio State.
Here are the Ohio State-Georgia college football odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
College Football Odds: Ohio State-Georgia Odds
Ohio State Buckeyes: +6.5 (-106)
Georgia Bulldogs: -6.5 (-114)
Over: 62.5 (-106)
Under: 62.5 (-114)
Why Ohio State Could Cover The Spread
Ohio State has a great chance to win the College Football Playoff outright, but will first need to cover against the defending champs. The Buckeyes feature an elite offense that ranks second in scoring (44.5 PPG) and eighth in total offense (493 YPG). They're a strong defensive team as well, ranking 11th in points allowed (19.3 PPG) and ninth in total defense (304 YPG). During the regular season, Ohio State picked up wins over then-fifth-ranked Notre Dame and then-13th-ranked Penn State while their only loss came at the hands of Michigan. They will notably be without running back Treveyon Henderson but will get starting offensive lineman Matt Jones back from an injury.
The Buckeyes feature a balanced offense that has a 53-47 run-pass split. However, matched up against Georgia's first-ranked rush defense, Ohio State will likely have to turn to the passing attack if they want to keep things close. That bodes well for the Buckeyes as quarterback CJ Stroud is their star player. Stroud is a projected first-round pick in next spring's NFL Draft. He's put together an incredible finale to an illustrious college career. Stroud threw for 3,340 yards and 37 touchdowns while maintaining the country's second-best QBR (87.7). The Bulldogs are vulnerable against the pass, ranking 56th in passing yards allowed. The Buckeyes should also have an advantage up front – at least in pass protection. Georgia records a sack on just 5.5% of dropbacks (87th) while Ohio State allows a sack on just 2.1% of dropbacks (seventh).
On the receiving end of Stroud's throws will likely be the Big Ten WR of the Year, Marvin Harrison Jr. A finalist for the Biletnikoff Award for the best WR in College Football, Harrison Jr. caught 72 passes for 1,157 yards and 12 touchdowns. The sophomore has shown the ability to perform on big stages, as he notably made his first career start in the Rose Bowl last year and caught three touchdowns. He'll likely need an even bigger performance if the Buckeyes want to cover against the defending champs.
Why Georgia Could Cover The Spread
Georgia has a great chance to go back-to-back and win the College Football Playoff outright, but will first need to cover a hefty spread against an explosive Ohio State offense. The Bulldogs have an explosive offense that ranks sixth in scoring (39.7 PPG) and seventh in total offense (493 YPG). They're stout on defense, ranking fourth in points allowed (13.8 PPG) and 10th in total defense (306 YPG). On their way to going undefeated, they defeated then-11th-ranked Oregon, then-first-ranked Tennessee, and then-14th-ranked LSU all by double-digits. Starting wide receiver Ladd McConkey and offensive lineman Warren McClendon are both up in the air after suffering injuries in the SEC title game, but star defensive lineman Jalen Carter is 100% ahead of the playoff.
The Bulldogs feature a balanced offense that has a 54-46 run-pass split. While Quarterback Stetson Bennett put together a solid season, Georgia will likely rely on their run game considering Ohio State allows just 184 passing yards per game. One of Georgia's biggest advantages could come in the red zone. The Bulldogs rank first in the country in red zone scoring efficiency (98% of visits end in a touchdown) whereas the Buckeyes rank 120th in red zone scoring defense (91% of opponent visits end in a touchdown). That bodes well for running backs Kenny McIntosh, Daijun Edwards, and Kendall Milton who combine for 23 touchdowns. While Ohio State does have a top-25 rushing defense, they haven't seen anything like Georgia's three-headed attack. The Buckeyes were torched for 252 yards on the ground against Michigan – perhaps previewing how Georgia could find success on Saturday
Final Ohio State-Georgia Prediction & Pick
Ohio State is a great team, but Georgia should run away with this one. Historically, 13 of the 16 semifinal games have been decided by more than a touchdown – a trend I see continuing on Saturday.
Final Ohio State-Georgia Prediction & Pick: Georgia -6.5 (-114)
