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Wheeler and Peterson meet in the final game of the series! The Phillies have struggled with consistency recently, while the Mets have been red-hot. The Mets won Game 1, but Game 2 has not happened yet. It's time to continue our MLB odds series with a Phillies-Mets prediction and pick.
Phillies-Mets Projected Starters
Zack Wheeler vs. David Peterson
Zack Wheeler (2-1) with a 3.73 ERA and a 0.99 WHIP
Last Start: Allowed two runs on five hits with zero walks and 13 strikeouts through seven innings.
Away Splits: (2-0) 1.93 ERA
David Peterson (1-1) with a 3.27 ERA and a 1.36 WHIP
Last Start: Allowed three runs on seven hits with zero walks and nine strikeouts through 5.1 innings.
Home Splits: (0-0) 3.60 ERA
Here are the MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Phillies-Mets Odds
Philadelphia Phillies: -1.5 (+142)
Moneyline: -120
New York Mets: +1.5 (-172)
Moneyline: +102
Over: 7.5 (-108)
Under: 7.5 (-112)
How to Watch Phillies vs. Mets
Time: 1:10 pm ET/10:10 am PT
TV: MLB Network/SNY/NBC Sports Philadelphia
*Watch MLB games LIVE with fuboTV (Get Access | Save $30)*
Why The Phillies Will Cover The Spread/Win
The Phillies were one of the best teams in the MLB last season, finishing with a 95-67 record. Things have been more hit or miss this season with the Phillies having a 13-10 record, and they have lost two straight games, including the first game in this series. The offense was a top-five unit the previous season, and this year has started just as well, near the top 10. The pitching has struggled in comparison after having a good season last year. On offense, there are sluggers on the team. Alec Bohm, Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber, Bryson Stott, Nick Castellanos, Brandon Marsh, and J.T. Realmuto make up a loaded offense. The pitching of Zack Wheeler, Cristopher Sanchez, Taijuan Walker, and Jesus Luzardo also makes up an excellent pitching trio for the Phillies. The Phillies have the talent for a great year, but must fix their pitching.
The Phillies are starting Wheeler on the mound, with a 2-1 record, a 3.73 ERA, and a 0.99 WHIP. He has allowed 13 runs on 25 hits with six walks and 41 strikeouts across 31.1 innings through his five starts. The K/BB ratio is also at 6.8. The Phillies are also 3-2 in his five starts this season. Wheeler has been playing well and gets a good matchup against an unimpressive Mets offense in their own right.
The Phillies' offense was one of the best in the MLB last season, and they have still been great this year. They have a .251 batting average this season after finishing with a .257 average last season. Castellanos, Schwarber, and Stott are the two biggest standouts on the offense so far this season. Schwarber leads in home runs with seven, RBI with 16, and OBP at .417. Then, Stott leads in batting average with .295, and Castellanos leads in total hits with 24. This offense has so much talent and depth this season, and should cause issues for Peterson on the mound, even though Peterson has been outstanding in his own right. This is a massive X-factor in this matchup.
Why The Mets Will Cover The Spread/Win
The Mets are committed to success and have a monster payroll, and that's after having an 89-73 record last season. They have started red-hot this season with a 16-7 record and have won five straight, including the first game in this series. They were ranked 12th in batting average and 15th in team pitching ERA. They have been unimpressive behind the plate, but they have the best pitching staff in the MLB this season. Pete Alonso, Francisco Lindor, Mark Vientos, Starling Marte, Brandon Nimmo, Jesse Winker, and then the giant acquisition of Juan Soto make up a solid pitching rotation. Kodai Senga, Tylor Megill, David Peterson, Griffin Canning, and Clay Holmes make up a loaded pitching rotation. The Mets have a lot of talent and can showcase that against the Phillies.
The Mets are starting Peterson on the mound. He has a 1-1 record, a 3.27 ERA, and a 1.36 WHIP. He has allowed eight runs on 22 hits with eight walks and 26 strikeouts across 22 innings through his four starts. He also has a K/BB ratio of 3.3. The Mets are also 3-1 in his four starts this year. Peterson has a massive challenge against the depth for the Phillies behind the plate. Still, Peterson has been red-hot and can play well in this matchup.
The Mets' offense was great last year and got even better heading into this season, but things have not been as impressive to start this season. Their team batting average was .246, 12th best in the league, but is now .231 to start the season, which is 18th in the MLB. Alonso has been dominant for the Mets behind the plate. Alonso leads in batting average at .341, in home runs with six, in RBI with 24, in OBP at .444, and in total hits with 28. This Mets offense has struggled to get much going this year, and this matchup against Wheeler will be a struggle.
Final Phillies-Mets Prediction & Pick
The pitching in this matchup will be the difference maker. I think Peterson helps the Mets keep this close and cover, but the Phillies still win thanks to their offensive depth.
Final Phillies-Mets Prediction & Pick: New York Mets +1.5 (-172)
