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The Pittsburgh Pirates (34-33) visit the Milwaukee Brewers (34-34) for the first of a pivotal three-game series between the division rivals. First pitch commences Friday at 8:10 p.m. ET. Below we continue our MLB odds series with a Pirates-Brewers prediction, pick, and how to watch.
Here are the Pirates-Brewers MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Pirates-Brewers Odds
Pittsburgh Pirates: +1.5 (-196)
Milwaukee Brewers: -1.5 (+162)
Over: 8.5 (-120)
Under: 8.5 (-102)
How To Watch Pirates vs. Brewers
TV: Bally Sports, ATTSN Pittsburgh
Stream: Apple TV+, MLB.tv
Time: 8:10 p.m. ET/ 5:10 p.m. PT
*See how to watch Pirates-Brewers LIVE with fuboTV (click for a free trial)*
Why The Pirates Could Cover The Spread
Last 10: 4-6 (First in the NL Central)
Run Line Record: 33-34 (49%)
Over Record: 33-31-3 (52%)
The Pirates stumbled mightily this week – dropping all three games in Chicago to the Cubs. After retaking the division lead last week, Pittsburgh finds itself just 0.5 games up on the second-place Brewers. Despite sitting just a single game over .500, the Pirates benefit by playing in arguably the worst division in baseball. Still, the Pirates may be running out of steam considering their 14-24 record since April. That said, they will need a strong effort from Rich Hill and some enhanced offensive production if they want to do so as road underdogs.
Lefty Rich Hill (6-5) makes his 14th start of the season for the Pirates tonight. The 43-year-old has had a solid season for the Pirates thus far. In addition to his winning record, Hill holds a palatable 4.23 ERA and 1.37 WHIP. Despite his advanced age, Hill has maintained steady strikeout numbers thanks to an 8.3 K/9 and 21.5% strikeout rate. Although Hill allows a high expected batting average (15th percentile) and slugging percentage (11th percentile), he still does a fair job limiting hard contact. Hill is coming off back-to-back strong starts – allowing just three runs over his last 13.2 innings. The Brewers have struggled mightily against lefties with a team OPS of .643. Considering they're averaging just 4.2 runs per game this month, Hill could easily be in line for another stellar outing.
Despite being swept in their most recent series, the Pirates have seen some strong performances from their hitters over the past week. Outfielder Bryan Reynolds may be through a minor slump as he's hitting .318 over their last six games. He's still lacking power but could be due for a breakout considering his .887 OPS against righties. Veteran Andrew McCutchen has seen similar success against righties – against whom he's batting .281. McCutchen is having a resurgent season for the Pirates and leads the team with a .383 on-base percentage. The X-factor for the Pirates tonight is Jack Suwinski. The young lefty boasts a massive bat – leading the team with 15 homers (four of which have come in the past seven days).
Why The Brewers Could Cover The Spread
Last 10: 3-7 (Second in the NL Central)
Run Line Record: 29-39 (43%)
Over Record: 28-37-3 (43%)
The Brewers looked to be gaining control of the NL Central last week after taking the first two games against a strong Orioles team. Six consecutive losses later (three of which came at home against the A's), and the Brewers are right back at .500. They benefitted from the Pirates getting swept as well this week and now have a prime opportunity to retake the division lead at home this weekend.
Righty Julio Teheran (1-2) makes his fifth start of the season tonight. After pitching just 36.1 innings since 2019, the Brewers added the 32-year-0ld last month due to a multitude of injuries. While the team is 1-3 in his starts, that is no fault of Teheran. He allowed just four runs in those starts and holds a 1.48 ERA and 0.95 WHIP. Despite a measly 5.9 K/9, he struck out at least five hitters in three of his four starts. What he lacks in whiffs he makes up for in command – sitting in the 98th percentile league-wide with a 3.3% walk rate. His expected ERA (3.47) suggests some regression may be in his future, but Teheran has performed well against qualities opponents. The Pirates struggle against righties and are coming off a series in which they managed just 11 runs – setting Teheran up for another quality start.
While the team as a whole has struggled against lefties this season, both Owen Miller and Joey Wiemer will be delighted to see Rich Hill on the bump. Miller is batting .333 against southpaws for the year, while Wiemer owns a staggering 1.041 OPS against them. The main guy to watch for, however, is Christian Yelich. Yelich may not be at the same level as his 2018 MVP season but he's certainly looking strong of late. Over their last five games, Yelich leads the team with a .381 average and 16 total bases.
Final Pirates-Brewers Prediction & Pick
While Rich Hill has pitched well for the Pirates, the Brewers are due for a win and should do so with ease against a slumping Pittsburgh team.
Final Pirates-Brewers Prediction & Pick: Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 (+162)
