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The Pittsburgh Pirates will begin a three-game series with the St. Louis Cardinals on Monday at Busch Stadium. It will be a National League Central showdown as we continue our MLB odds series with a Pirates-Cardinals prediction and pick.
Pirates-Cardinals Projected Starters
Carmen Mlodzinski vs. Miles Mikolas
Carmen Mlodzinski (1-3) with a 6.58 ERA
Last Start: Mlodzinski went just four innings in his last outing, allowing two earned runs on six hits, while striking out four and walking one in a no-decision against the Chicago Cubs.
Away Splits: Mlodzinski is 0-2 with a 7.62 ERA in three starts away from PNC Park.
Miles Mikolas (1-2) with a 4.66 ERA
Last Start: Mikolas hurled 5 1/3 shutout innings in his previous outing, allowing three hits while striking out four in a win over the Cincinnati Reds.
Home Splits: Mikolas is 0-1 with a 4.35 ERA in two home starts this season.
Here are the MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Pirates-Cardinals Odds
Pittsburgh Pirates: +1.5 (-160)
Moneyline: +128
St. Louis Cardinals: -1.5 (+132)
Moneyline: -152
Over: 8.5 (-105)
Under: 8.5 (-115)
How to Watch Pirates vs. Cardinals
Time: 7:45 PM ET/4:45 PM PT
TV: FDSMW
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Why The Pirates Will Cover The Spread/Win
The Pirates are trying new things. For example, Matt Gorski hit a home run in his debut, and that could earn him more playing time in this game. The Pirates need all the help they can get, as their offense has been heavily inconsistent. While O'Neil Cruz has had some success, it has not translated to overall success for him or the rest of the offense. He is the current leader in home runs with eight. Meanwhile, Bryan Reynolds has struggled and came into the week with just four home runs, while also slugging 17 RBIs. The Pirates would like to see more from Ke'Bryan Hayes, who is struggling to hit the baseball consistently.
Mlodzinski has a 4.91 ERA in three appearances against the Cardinals and will make his first start against them. When Mlodzinski leaves the game, he will turn it over to a bullpen that is 19th in team ERA. David Bednar has a tenuous hold on the closer's job, currently sporting a 0-3 record with a 5.63 ERA with three saves.
The Pirates will cover the spread if Cruz, Reynolds, and Hayes can all spread the baseball and drive runners home. Then, they need at least five innings from Mlodzinski, and for the bullpen to hold the line.
Why The Cardinals Will Cover The Spread/Win
The Cardinals still need some pieces to help themselves elevate above their current standing. Significantly, they are barely clinging above water as they try to save their season, sporting a losing record as they enter this game. To rectify the situation, they need more from their offense.
Lars Nootbaar currently leads the team with five home runs, 18 RBIs, and 22 runs. Meanwhile, Brendan Donovan has been solid, with three home runs, 17 RBIs, and 17 runs. Masyn Winn has also been solid, scoring 16 runs. However, Nolan Arenado has struggled to hit the ball consistently, batting .237 with three home runs, 13 RBIs, and 13 runs. The Cardinals need more out of their veteran third baseman to have a chance to do much of anything in this game.
Mikolas has made 23 appearances against the Pirates and is 5-6 with a 2.90 ERA. When Mikolas exits the game, he will turn it over to a bullpen that is 25th in team ERA. Ryan Helsley is the closer, coming in with a mark of 1-0 with a 4.09 ERA and four saves. If the Cardinals can get him a lead, he is almost guaranteed to close things out.
The Cardinals will cover the spread if Nootbaar can set the pace, with Donovan, Winn, and Arenado also contributing. Then, they need Mikolas to dominate the Pirates as he has done in the past, lasting about six innings before turning it over to his bullpen with a lead.
Final Pirates-Cardinals Prediction & Pick
The Pirates are 12-22 against the spread, while the Cardinals are 15-18. Additionally, the Pirates are 6-10 against the spread on the road, while the Cards are 8-8 against the spread at home.
The Pirates are throwing out a relief pitcher to start, while the Cards have an established starter going. Neither team is doing much right now, and it is difficult to find a clear favorite. However, the Cardinals have slightly better talent. They are much more capable of stringing together some hits and driving runners home to build momentum. Therefore, I can see them winning this game and covering the spread at home to start the series off on the right foot.
Final Pirates-Cardinals Prediction & Pick: St. Louis Cardinals: -1.5 (+132)
