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The Pittsburgh Pirates (34-31) visit the Chicago Cubs (29-37) for the second of their three-game series on Wednesday. First pitch commences at 8:05 p.m. ET. The Cubs jumped out to an early series lead thanks to their 11-3 win in yesterday's opener. Below we continue our MLB odds series with a Pirates-Cubs prediction, pick, and how to watch.
Here are the Pirates-Cubs MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Pirates-Cubs Odds
Pittsburgh Pirates: +1.5 (-166)
Chicago Cubs: -1.5 (+138)
Over: 9 (+100)
Under: 9 (-122)
How To Watch Pirates vs. Cubs
TV: ATTSN Pittsburgh, Marquee
Stream: MLB.tv
Time: 8:10 p.m. ET/ 5:10 p.m. PT
*See how to watch Pirates-Cubs LIVE with fuboTV (click for a free trial)*
Why The Pirates Could Cover The Spread
Last 10: 6-4 (First in the NL Central)
Run Line Record: 33-32 (51%)
Over Record: 31-31-3 (50%)
Pittsburgh has been one of the surprise stories of the MLB season. The Pirates jumped out to an early lead in the division after a stellar 19-9 April. Although they regressed dramatically in May, a 6-4 start in June coupled with the abomination that is the NL Central has them right back in first place. Still, the Pirates didn't put up much of a fight in last night's opener – giving up 14 hits while collecting just seven themselves. Consequently, they'll need both their pitching and hitting to be better tonight if they want to cover.
Righty Osvaldo Bido (0-0) makes his MLB debut for the Pirates tonight. The 27-year-old has spent the last six years in Pittsburgh's minor league system – compiling a 4.40 ERA across 529.2 innings. Bido features a strong fastball/slider combination that both sit in the low to mid-90s. He faces a favorable matchup tonight as the Cubs average the 10th-fewest runs per game and strikeout at the seventh-highest rate in the league. Additionally, they've performed significantly worse against righties (.699 OPS) compared to lefties (.769 OPS). Even with that, the Cubs put up 11 runs in the opener and Bido's lack of experience makes him (and the Pirates) difficult to trust tonight.
Given Bido's inexperience, the Pirates likely need a big offensive night if they want to cover. That starts with right fielder Connor Joe who has crushed lefties this year. In 64 at-bats, Joe collected 39 total bases while holding a .313 average. Speeder Ji Hwan Bae could also be in for a big night as he's batting .309 against southpaws this season. Bae getting on base could prove critical for Pittsburgh's chances of covering tonight. The 23-year-old ranks fifth in the MLB with 19 steals despite having the fewest at-bats of anyone in the top 10.
Why The Cubs Could Cover The Spread
Last 10: 4-6 (Fourth in the NL Central)
Run Line Record: 35-31 (53%)
Over Record: 32-33-1 (49%)
The Cubs got off to a strong start but cooled off dramatically in May – winning just 10 of 28 games. Their offense regressed dramatically with their runs per game dropping from 5.5 to 3.6 in May. Although that hasn't improved this month despite a 5-6 start in June, last night's outburst could be a sign of a turnaround. The Cubs put up 11 runs in the series opener – pounding out 14 hits in the process. They'll need to continue that offensive effort tonight, although with the way Drew Smyly's been pitching they may not need much from their offense to cover.
Lefty Drew Smyly (5-4) makes his 14th start of the season for the Cubs tonight. The 34-year-old southpaw has built on his strong debut season in Chicago last year – lowering his ERA to 3.27 and his WHIP to 1.16 through 13 starts. Smyly won't strike many hitters out but features excellent control – ranking in the 73rd percentile in Walk Rate. His best attribute is his ability to limit hard contact as Smyly sits in the 85th percentile in Average Exit Velocity and the 90th percentile in Hard Hit Rate. With strong expected stats this year, Smyly has quietly been one of the better pitchers in the NL. Although he has given up 10 runs over his last three starts (picking up three losses along the way), look for Smyly to bounce back at home tonight.
Ian Happ was on his way toward a monster night for the Cubs – smashing a three-run homer before exiting with a calf injury. His replacement, Christopher Morel, proceeded to crank a three-run home run of his own. That was a welcome sign for Cubs backers. After a ridiculous beginning to his 2023 season, Morel had been mired in a slump. With two homers in his last three appearances, the talented 23-year-old could be heating up yet again.
Final Pirates-Cubs Prediction & Pick
With Pittsburgh's starter making his debut, this feels like a stay-away for me. That said, the Cubs' offense looked stellar last night. Considering how well Smyly has pitched this season, I'd lean toward the Cubs if you're looking to make a play here.
Final Pirates-Cubs Prediction & Pick: Chicago Cubs -1.5 (+138)
