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We're set for another betting prediction and pick from UFC Mexico City as we take a look at this next showdown in the Lightweight (155) Division. Mexico's own Rafa Garcia will take the octagon against California's Vinc Pichel. Check the UFC odds series for our Garcia-Pichel prediction and pick.
Rafa Garcia (16-4) comes into this fight with a 4-4 UFC record since 2021. After back-to-back wins over Maheshate and Clay Guida, he dropped his most recent bout via TKO to a rising Grant Dawson. Now, he'll look to earn the win back as he fights in front of home country fans the sizable betting favorite. Garcia stands 5-foot-7 with a 70-inch reach.
Vinc Pichel (14-4) has gone 7-4 inside the UFC octagon since 2012. He's had four fights cancelled over the last two years and comes in with back-to-back losses against Mark Madsen and Ismael Bonfim, both by unanimous decision. He'll look for the massive upset in hostile territory. Pichel stands 5-foot-10 with a 72-inch reach.
Here are the UFC Mexico Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC Mexico Odds: Rafa Garcia-Vinc Pichel Odds
Rafa Garcia: -485
Vinc Pichel: +370
Over 2.5 rounds: -330
Under 2.5 rounds: +240
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Why Rafa Garcia Will Win
- Last Fight: (L) Grant Dawson – TKO (ground-and-pound, R2)
- Last 5: 3-2
- Finishes: 1 KO/TKO, 8 SUB
After two impressive unanimous decision wins over dangerous opponents, Rafa Garcia ran into a brick wall with Grant Dawson in his last fight. While Dawson earned the eventual knockout, Garcia certainly had him wobbled at one point of the fight and could have jumped in for the finish. He'll look to use his grappling advantage over Pichel as he owns eight wins by submission while never getting caught himself. On the feet, we can expect haymakers from both sides but if Garcia wants to be successful, he'll take this fight to the ground where he's most comfortable.
Rafa Garcia will also have a slight power advantage on his side when it comes to striking, but his opponent has displayed a solid chin over his career and it'll be tough to get Pichel out of their with punches alone. It's also worth noting that four of Garcia's last six fights have ended in a decision, so we could see a drawn-out effort where both men are swinging for the finish by the third round. Cardio will have to be key for Garcia given the heightened elevation of Mexico City.
Why Vinc Pichel Will Win
- Last Fight: (L) Ismael Bonfim – U DEC
- Last 5: 3-2
- Finishes: 8 KO/TKO
While he's been on the losing side of his last two decisions, Vinc Pichel has shown a great ability to get rocked and keep moving forward while pressuring his opponents. He's a tough-nosed boxer who does his best work from in close and with a height and reach advantage, he should be able to effectively manage the distance throughout this fight. Look for Pichel to tie Garcia up in the clinch and along the fence while he lands short shots to soften his opponent and get him to drop his hands.
At 42 years old, Pichel may not have some of the speed that he fought with during the early stages of his career, but his cardio and chin will be his greatest asset during this fight. He's known to turn the pressure up during the later rounds of fights and he could certainly turn the tide during this one if Garcia begins showing signs of fatigue. Either way, his takedown defense stands at a lackluster 25% and he'll have to improve that aspect against a keen wrestler like Garcia.
Final Rafa Garcia-Vinc Pichel Prediction & Pick
This fight will be very close on the feet as both men fight with a similar brawling style. Both men are capable of rocking their opponents and quickly jumping in for the finish, but the knockout upside has to be on Pichel's side during this fight. However, Rafa Garcia is fighting in front of a home Mexican crowd and the energy could push him through if this fight hits the second and third rounds.
Both men are likely to stand and trade during this fight, but I expect Garcia to lean on his grappling here with the clear submission advantage. His cardio, however, could become a question and with the total round odds set where they are, this fight could hinge on whichever side is fresher by the end of it.
For our final betting prediction, we have to roll with Rafa Garcia to win the fight behind his control on the ground and wrestling advantage. His betting odds are slightly juiced, so don't hesitate to take him to win by submission.
Final Rafa Garcia-Vinc Pichel Prediction & Pick: Rafa Garcia (-485)
