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We're back with another betting prediction and pick for this upcoming UFC Prelim taking place in the Flyweight (125) Division. Brazil's newcomer Rafael Estevam will take on Mexico's Jesus Aguilar in a competitive matchup early into this fight card. Check the UFC odds series for our Estevam-Aguilar prediction and pick.
Rafael Estevam (12-0) will be making his second walk to the UFC octagon following a debut win over Charles Johnson via unanimous decision. He came into his debut as the slight betting favorite and had trouble making weight on the scales, so expect a much more determined and focused version of him this second time around. Estevam stands 5-foot-8 with a 69-inch reach.
Jesus Aguilar (11-2) has gone 3-1 in the UFC since 2023. He lost his UFC debut to eventual title challenger Tatsuro Taira, but has won three consecutive bouts over Shannon Ross, Mateus Mendonca, and Stewart Nicoll in response. He'll look to surprise as the betting underdog once again. Aguilar stands 5-foot-4 with a 62.5-inch reach.
Here are the UFC Vegas 102 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC Vegas 102 Odds: Rafael Estevam-Jesus Aguilar Odds
Rafael Estevam: -395
Jesus Aguilar: +310
Over 2.5 rounds: -110
Under 2.5 rounds: -110
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Why Rafael Estevam Will Win
- Last Fight: (W) Charles Johnson – U DEC
- Last 5: 5-0
- Finishes: 4 KO/TKO, 3 SUB
Rafael Estevam made a big impression in his debut win over a veteran of the sport like Charles Johnson, effectively controlling the fight and stuffing any takedown attempts that came his way. Estevam is very well-rounded and has history as a dangerous finisher, but it was promising to see him fight conservatively throughout a three-round fight. He should have the speed advantage over a slightly stockier fighter in Aguilar and he'll certainly have the advantage in terms of his movement around the cage.
Estevam will also be the longer striker and could find success in deterring his opponent if he's able to stick his jab with consistency. His takedown accuracy could certainly use some work and he'll be facing a competent grappler in Jesus Aguilar, so it may be in Estevam's best interest to keep this one standing and on the feet. Watch for his leg kicks to be a factor early in stifling his opponent's movement and following kicks with big shots over the top of his opponent's guard.
Why Jesus Aguilar Will Win
- Last Fight: (W) Stewart Nicoll – SUB (guillotine choke, R1)
- Last 5: 4-1
- Finishes: 1 KO/TKO, 7 SUB
Jesus Aguilar has looked dominant over his last three fights, finding a win by submission and one by TKO. His knockout over a tough fighter like Shannon Ross was a great display of his striking power and his most recent victory was a solid indicator of how dangerous his guillotine choke can be if his opponent leaves his head in the wrong place. Expect a similar game plan from him during this one as he could pull guard and attack from the bottom if his opponent shoots for the takedown.
Jesus Aguilar has shown a great chin throughout his pro career and has never been KO'd up to this point. While he'll sustain damage just like any other fighter, he does a great job of making in-fight adjustments and playing into the weaknesses of his opponent. Look for a similar strategy throughout this one as he'll slowly break down the striking of his opponent. His cardio is also a huge strength of his and could be the fresher fighter if this fight sees the third round.
Final Rafael Estevam-Jesus Aguilar Prediction & Pick
This will be another high-level bout between two very technical fighters and despite the betting odds, this fight should be a bit closer in terms of which side to back. While Jesus Aguilar doesn't have the same raw talent as Rafael Estevam, he's certainly a tough out and will be a stern challenge for Estevam's second UFC appearance.
Still, Estevam is extremely well-rounded in his own right and throws almost double the strikes of his opponent per minute while landing at a 64% accuracy. His height and reach advantage will certainly serve him well in gauging the distance, so don't be surprised if he exploits that part of the matchup early with his jab.
While Jesus Aguilar should have a shorter betting line in this one, we'll still have to side with the betting favorite and his skill set. This fight may come down to whichever fighter is more active in the striking exchanges and I expect the optics to favor Estevam in a three-round environment. Let's roll with the favorite and the total over in rounds.
Final Rafael Estevam-Jesus Aguilar Prediction & Pick: Rafael Estevam (-395); OVER 2.5 Rounds (-110)
