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UFC Baku: Jamahal Hill versus Khalil Rountree Jr. continues on the main card with a fight between Rafael Fiziev and Ignacio Bahamondes in the heavyweight division. Check out our UFC odds series for our Fiziev-Bahamondes prediction and pick.
Rafael Fiziev (12-4) enters UFC Baku aiming to snap a three-fight skid, having dropped a unanimous decision to Justin Gaethje in March and suffering a TKO loss due to a knee injury against Mateusz Gamrot last year. Now, Fiziev looks to rebound and halt Ignacio Bahamondes’ momentum this Saturday night.
Ignacio Bahamondes (17-5) enters UFC Baku riding a wave of momentum after three consecutive first-round finishes, including a submission win over Jalin Turner and knockout victories over Manuel Torres and Christos Giagos. Now, Bahamondes looks to extend his streak and halt Rafael Fiziev’s comeback this Saturday night.
Here are the UFC Baku Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC Baku Odds: Rafael Fiziev-Ignacio Bahamondes Odds
Rafael Fiziev: +110
Ignacio Bahamondes: -130
Over 2.5 rounds: -188
Under 2.5 rounds: +145
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Why Rafael Fiziev Will Win
- Last Fight: (L) Justin Gaethje – DEC
- Last 5: 2-3
- Finishes: 9 (8 KO/TKO/1 SUB)
Rafael Fiziev’s elite striking and fight IQ give him a distinct edge over Ignacio Bahamondes this weekend at UFC Baku. Fiziev, despite a recent skid, remains one of the division’s most technically gifted Muay Thai practitioners, with knockout wins over top names like Brad Riddell and Rafael dos Anjos. His explosiveness and ability to read opponents allow him to land devastating kicks and counters, often setting the pace early and forcing rivals onto the back foot.
Bahamondes, while tall and rangy with a high output, has struggled against opponents who can close distance and disrupt his rhythm, as seen in his losses to Ludovit Klein and John Makdessi. Fiziev’s speed advantage and sharp footwork will allow him to slip inside Bahamondes’ reach, landing powerful combinations and body kicks before exiting danger. Defensively, Fiziev boasts elite takedown defense, 90% in the UFC, making it difficult for Bahamondes to surprise him with wrestling or clinch work.
If Fiziev can maintain his trademark pressure and avoid getting drawn into a long-range striking battle, he should be able to outpoint Bahamondes or even find a finish with his superior shot selection and power. Expect Fiziev to use his experience, striking variety, and defensive prowess to secure a much-needed victory and reassert himself as a lightweight contender.
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Why Ignacio Bahamondes Will Win
- Last Fight: (W) Jalin Turner – SUB R1
- Last 5: 4-1
- Finishes: 13 (11 KO/TKO/2 SUB)
Ignacio Bahamondes’ size, reach, and volume striking give him a clear path to victory over Rafael Fiziev this weekend. Standing 6’3” with a 75-inch reach, Bahamondes is one of the tallest and rangiest lightweights on the roster, allowing him to keep opponents at bay with teep kicks, straight punches, and a relentless output. He averages over seven significant strikes per minute, ranking among the division’s most active strikers, and has recently strung together three consecutive first-round finishes, including a submission win over Jalin Turner and knockouts of Manuel Torres and Christos Giagos.
Fiziev’s explosive Muay Thai is dangerous, but he has struggled with endurance and output in longer fights, especially when pressured by taller, busier opponents. Bahamondes’ ability to maintain distance, combined with his improved defensive grappling and submission skills, means he can threaten Fiziev both at range and in scrambles. Training alongside elite fighters at Valle Flow Striking has sharpened his fight IQ and allowed him to diversify his attacks, making him less predictable and more dangerous as the fight progresses.
If Bahamondes can avoid Fiziev’s early power and force the fight into deeper waters, his cardio, length, and volume should allow him to systematically wear down Fiziev, outlanding him over three rounds or even finding a late finish. Expect Bahamondes to use his physical tools, striking variety, and recent momentum to secure a statement win and break into the lightweight rankings at UFC Baku.
Final Rafael Fiziev-Ignacio Bahamondes Prediction & Pick
Rafael Fiziev enters UFC Baku with his back against the wall, but his elite Muay Thai and fight IQ give him the edge over Ignacio Bahamondes in this high-stakes lightweight clash. Fiziev’s speed and explosiveness should allow him to close the distance, land powerful kicks, and disrupt Bahamondes’ rhythm early.
While Bahamondes boasts a significant height and reach advantage, Fiziev’s defensive prowess, highlighted by a 90% takedown defense, will make it difficult for Bahamondes to implement a grappling-heavy approach or keep Fiziev at range. Expect Fiziev to use sharp footwork and head movement to slip inside, landing crisp combinations and body kicks before exiting danger.
If Fiziev can maintain his pressure and avoid getting drawn into a long-range striking battle, his superior shot selection and power should allow him to outpoint Bahamondes over three rounds or even find a late finish. Rafael Fiziev will rebound with a statement win, reasserting himself as a top lightweight contender in Baku.
Final Rafael Fiziev-Ignacio Bahamondes Prediction & Pick: Rafael Fiziev (+110), Over 2.5 rounds (-188)
