Contender Series Week 8 kicks off with a fight between Rashid Vagabov and Paulo da Silva in the flyweight division on Tuesday. Check out our Contender Series odds series for our Vagabov-Silva prediction and pick.
Rashid Vagabov (13-2) enters riding a four-fight submission streak in UAE Warriors, most recently choking out Denis Araujo via rear-naked choke in February 2025. Known for his relentless wrestling and calculated ground game, Vagabov has dominated regional competition consistently, and he looks to continue his dominance entering this matchup with Paulo da Silva on Tuesday night.
Paulo da Silva (11-1) enters off a split decision win over Hugo Paiva and a dominant unanimous decision over Rhuan Pablo Sousa. He's riding an 11-game winning streak, and he puts that on the line when he takes on Russia's Rashid Vagabov as he looks to secure his UFC contract on Week 8 of Dana White's Contender Series.
UFC Contender Series Odds: Rashid Vagabov-Paulo da Silva Odds
Rashid Vagabov: -810
Paulo da Silva: +500
Over 1.5 Rounds: -160
Under 1.5 Rounds: +124
*Watch sports LIVE with fuboTV (Get Access | Save $30)*
Why Rashid Vagabov will win
- Last Fight: (W) Denis Araujo – SUB R2
- Last 5: 5-0
- Finishes: 8 (4 KO/TKO/4 SUB)
Rashid Vagabov’s smothering wrestling and strong top control could be the difference against Paulo da Silva’s submission-focused approach, especially considering Vagabov’s resilience against high-level grapplers in prior fights. Vagabov’s experience facing top Russian talent and consistently grinding out wins has built a style geared for exhausting and neutralizing opposition.
Da Silva’s best moments come on the mat, but Vagabov’s ability to dictate takedown exchanges will restrict da Silva’s offensive opportunities, forcing him onto his back foot. Expect Vagabov to implement pressure early, driving Da Silva to the fence and shutting down transitions with heavy hips, stifling sweeps and submissions before they can develop.
Vagabov’s recent victories highlight improved positional grappling, making him less likely to be caught by quick submissions or reversals. If da Silva is unable to dictate pace or win scrambles, the fight will tilt steadily toward Vagabov’s relentless grind—a scenario in which he excels.
Adding in Vagabov’s composure and round-winning control, Da Silva’s ability to get finishes or score big moments becomes limited as minutes tick by. In a high-stakes bout, Vagabov’s imposing style seems built to thwart exactly what Da Silva does best.
Why Paulo da Silva will win
- Last Fight: (W) Hugo Paiva – DEC
- Last 5:5-0
- Finishes: 9 (9 SUB)
Paulo da Silva’s dynamic submission game and relentless pace offer a stylistic challenge for Rashid Vagabov, whose methodical wrestling can be vulnerable to aggressive transitions. Da Silva thrives when opponents attempt takedowns, often capitalizing on brief openings with slick scrambles and opportunistic submission attempts.
Vagabov’s last loss, where he was out-grappled and caught in a submission, highlights that he’s not impervious to well-timed attacks on the mat. Da Silva’s recent fights show consistent improvement in chaining submissions together, forcing foes to defend non-stop and testing their conditioning under pressure.
If Da Silva can force Vagabov into transitions and create scrambles, he’ll have opportunities to snatch the neck or isolate a limb for a tap. The Brazilian’s ability to maintain a furious pace means Vagabov must continually work, risking fatigue and small mistakes that Da Silva is designed to exploit.
In high-stakes, fast-paced exchanges, Da Silva’s finishing instincts and creativity on the ground could turn a grinding contest into a moment of brilliance. Should Da Silva survive early top pressure, he’s capable of flipping momentum and finishing strong, making him a live threat to upset Vagabov.
Final Rashid Vagabov-Paulo da Silva Prediction & Pick
Rashid Vagabov vs. Paulo da Silva profiles as an intriguing clash between relentless wrestling and creative submission offense, setting the stage for a tactical battle that’s likely to be won on the mat. Vagabov enters with powerful top pressure, savvy positional grappling, and experience grinding out tough contests against seasoned opponents. Da Silva, meanwhile, arrives with momentum and a reputation for snatching victories via slick submissions and keeping a frenetic pace through every round.
Expect Vagabov to assert himself early using sharp takedown entries and strategic pressure against the fence, testing da Silva’s ability to create scrambles and attack off his back. Da Silva is no stranger to adversity and will look for quick transitions, but Vagabov’s refined top game means he’ll rarely leave limbs or neck exposed in high-risk moments. The fight will likely play out with Vagabov accumulating control time and racking up scoring positions, while da Silva tries to create chaos and opportunistic submissions on the ground.
As the rounds progress, Vagabov’s measured approach and endurance are poised to frustrate da Silva, neutralizing the Brazilian’s submission attacks and wearing him down physically and mentally. Da Silva’s path to a finish requires drawing Vagabov into exchanges with high scramble potential, but Vagabov’s discipline and tactical intelligence have consistently kept him safe against comparable threats.
Ultimately, the most likely outcome is Vagabov leveraging control, takedowns, and positional dominance to score the submission victory over da Silva in the Week 8 Contender Series showcase.
Final Rashid Vagabov-Paulo da Silva Prediction & Pick: Rashid Vagabov (-810), Under 1.5 Rounds (+124)
