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The Red Sox travel to Tampa Bay to start a new series! These two teams desperately need momentum because both have been inconsistent at the start of the season. This is also game two of the series. It's time to continue our MLB odds series with a Red Sox-Rays prediction and pick.
Red Sox-Rays Projected Starters
Walker Buehler vs. Ryan Pepiot
Walker Buehler (1-1) with a 5.74 ERA and a 1.28 WHIP
Last Start: Allowed one run on four hits with one walk and seven strikeouts through 6.1 innings.
Away Splits: (0-1) 8.31 ERA
Ryan Pepiot (1-1) with a 3.38 ERA and a 1.50 WHIP
Last Start: Allowed three runs on six hits with three walks and five strikeouts through five innings.
Home Splits: (1-1) 3.38 ERA
Here are the MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Red Sox-Rays Odds
Boston Red Sox: +1.5 (-182)
Moneyline: +108
Tampa Bay Rays: -1.5 (+150)
Moneyline: -126
Over: 9 (+100)
Under: 9 (-122)
How to Watch Red Sox vs. Rays
Time: 7:05 pm ET/4:05 pm PT
Article Continues Below
TV: FanDuel Sports Network SUN/NESN
*Watch MLB games LIVE with fuboTV (Get Access | Save $30)*
Why The Red Sox Will Cover The Spread/Win
The Red Sox had the epitome of a mediocre season last year, finishing with an 81-81 record. They are 8-9 this season to start the year and have gone 2-3 in their last five games. Statistically, the Red Sox were great on offense last season and have carried it over into this year. In comparison, the pitching has been average and has not changed much from last season to this season. Alex Bregman, Jarren Duran, Rafael Devers, Triston Casas, Kristian Campbell, Trevor Story, Cedanne Rafaela, and Wilyer Abreu have held the fort for this elite offense. Tanner Houck, Garrett Crochet, and Richard Fitts are the biggest standouts in this pitching lineup. They need consistency; if they can do that, they are in for a big season 2025.
The Red Sox are starting Buehler on the mound. He has a 1-1 record, a 5.74 ERA, and a 1.28 WHIP. He's allowed 10 runs on 18 hits with two walks and 14 strikeouts through 15.2 innings across three starts. His K/BB ratio is also at seven. He has struggled in his three starts with varying levels of consistent play. The Red Sox are still 2-1 in the three games he has started. This is a bad matchup for Buehler against the Rays' offense, after the way he has begun.
The Red Sox's offense was great last year. They were sixth in team batting average at .252, and this season are ninth in team batting average, with .257. Abreu, Bregman, and Story lead the team in most notable batting categories. Abreu leads in batting average at .340 and in OBP at .468. Then, Story leads in home runs with three hits and 20. Finally, Bregman leads the team in RBI with 12. This Boston offense has been very balanced with depth and should challenge Pepiot on the mound for Tampa Bay. This will be a big challenge for the Red Sox.
Why The Rays Will Cover The Spread/Win
The Rays were inconsistent last season, with an 80-82 record, and then they have a 7-8 record so far this season, going 3-2 in their last five games. The Rays' offense struggled last season, but they have started this year red-hot as a top-10 unit. The pitching has only improved after finishing in the top 10 last season. Yandy Diaz, Brandon Lowe, Junior Caminero, Jonny DeLuca, Jake Mangum, Taylor Walls, Jonathan Aranda, and Kameron Misner. On the mound, Ryan Pepiot and Drew Rasmussen have been the best aces for the Rays. The Rays have much to like this season and the talent to make some noise, but consistency is key, and they need to keep winning for momentum.
The Rays are starting Pepiot on the mound. He has a 1-1 record, a 3.38 ERA, and a 1.50 WHIP. He has allowed seven runs on 17 hits with seven walks and 16 strikeouts through 16 innings across three starts. He also has a K/BB ratio of 2.3. The Rays are 2-1 in his three starts this season. Pepiot has been one of the better pitchers on the Rays this season, but this is a big matchup against the Red Sox. He has to show up against this red-hot offense, even at home.
The offense for the Rays has gotten red-hot to start the year. They are ninth in team-batting average at .265 after finishing with a .230 last season. Lowe, Caminero, and Aranda are the best three players on this offense. Caminero leads in batting average with .280 and in OBP at .315. Lowe is the leader in home runs, scoring three and RBI, scoring nine. Finally, Aranda is the leader in total hits with 15. The Rays have been red-hot on offense, and they should have some success against Buehler because he has been too inconsistent not to let up some offense.
Final Red Sox-Rays Prediction & Pick
I think these two teams are too similar. The Red Sox should stay in this game and cover, thanks to their offense, but the Rays get the win outright because they started Pepiot on the mound.
Final Red Sox-Rays Prediction & Pick: Boston Red Sox +1.5 (-182)
