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Lodolo and Schwellenbach face off in the series finale in Atlanta! These two teams are playing very similarly this season, but the Reds are struggling while the Braves are playing well. It's time to continue our MLB odds series with a Reds-Braves prediction and pick.
Reds-Braves Projected Starters
Nick Lodolo vs. Spencer Schwellenbach
Nick Lodolo (3-3) with a 3.27 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP
Last Start: Allowed seven runs on 10 hits with two walks and four strikeouts through 5.1 innings.
Away Splits: (2-2) 1.07 ERA
Spencer Schwellenbach (1-3) with a 3.92 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP
Last Start: Allowed six runs on eight hits with one walk and four strikeouts through 3.2 innings.
Home Splits: (1-1) 3.28 ERA
Here are the MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Reds-Braves Odds
Cincinnati Reds: +1.5 (-154)
Moneyline: +144
Atlanta Braves: -1.5 (+128)
Moneyline: -172
Over: 8 (-102)
Under: 8 (-120)
How to Watch Reds vs. Braves
Time: 7:15 pm ET/4:15 pm PT
Article Continues Below
TV: FanDuel Sports Network Ohio/FanDuel Sports Network South
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Why The Reds Will Cover The Spread/Win
The Reds struggled to find consistency during the 2024 season and finished with a 77-85 record. They are 17-18 this season, but have lost four straight, including the first two in this series. Cincinnati struggled behind the plate last year, but has been marginally better and around average this season. Their pitching has jumped to being one of the best in the MLB after being below average last season. Spencer Steer, Elly De La Cruz, Jeimer Candelario, Christian Encarnacion-Strand, TJ Friedl, Matt McLain, Gavin Lux, Austin Hays, and Jake Fraley have been standouts in a struggling offense this season. Andrew Abbott, Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo, and Brady Singer have all been at varying levels of good on the mound. The Reds have talent and potential, but need to get back on track.
The Reds are starting Lodolo on the mound. He has a 3-3 record, a 3.27 ERA, and a 1.04 WHIP. He has allowed 17 runs on 36 hits with seven walks and 31 strikeouts through 41.1 innings across his seven starts. He also has a K/BB ratio of 4.4 so far through those starts. Lodolo has been solid in those starts, and the Reds have an official 4-3 record in his starts. Lodolo has only gone up against Verdugo for the Braves, forcing him to go 0-3.
The Reds struggled behind the plate last season and have been better this season. They ranked 26th in batting average at .231 and are 15th in batting average this season at .242. De La Cruz, Hays, and Lux have been the standouts on offense this year. Lux leads in batting average at .316 and in OBP at .419. Then, De La Cruz leads in home runs with five and RBI with 22. Finally, Friedl leads in total hits with 28. The Reds are playing better on offense more recently and have a great matchup against Senzatela on the mound for the Rockies because he has been very inconsistent.
The Braves' offense has taken a step back this season. They are 17th in batting average at .241 after having a .244 average last year, which was 15th in the league. Ozuna and Riley have been the best players on offense for the Braves. Riley leads in batting average at .290, in home runs with eight, in RBI with 25, and in total hits with 42. Finally, Ozuna leads in OBP at .433. This offense has depth, but they are a step behind Lodolo, which means a lot due to how well he is playing.
Why The Braves Will Cover The Spread/Win
The Braves had a great season last year with an 89-73 record, but they have started this year inconsistently. They have a 17-18 record, but have won three straight coming into this game, including the first two in this series and one with a game-winner. Their offense was average last season, but they have started slowly this season and are below average. Last season, they had one of the best pitching staffs in the MLB, but it has fallen recently and is in the middle of the pack this year. Spencer Schwellenbach has easily been the best pitcher for the Braves, but Grant Holmes and AJ Smith-Shawver have also been solid. On offense, Marcell Ozuna and Austin Riley have dominated at the plate for Atlanta, with Orlando Arcia, Matt Olson, Ozzie Albies, and Michael Harris II not far behind and playing well. Ronald Acuna Jr. is still out with his injury. The Braves must be more consistent.
The Braves are starting Schwellenbach on the mound. He has a 1-3 record, a 3.92 ERA, and a 1.11 WHIP. He has allowed 20 runs on 39 hits with seven walks and 37 strikeouts through 41.1 innings across his seven starts. He also has a K/BB ratio of 5.3. Schwellenbach is in line for a massive game because all of the notable hitters on Cincinnati have not gotten a hit off of him this year, including De La Cruz, Fraley, Steer, and Friedl. Schwellenbach can hold his own.
Final Reds-Braves Prediction & Pick
This will be a pitching duel between Lodolo and Schwellenbach. Neither team has a history of playing well against the other on the mound. I like the Reds to cover and keep this close, even if the Braves still win outright.
Final Reds-Braves Prediction & Pick: Cincinnati Reds +1.5 (-154)
