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The Kansas City Royals will begin a three-game series with the Cleveland Guardians at Progressive Field. It will be an American League Central showdown as we continue our MLB odds series with a Royals-Guardians prediction and pick.
Royals-Guardians Projected Starters
Kris Bubic vs. Tanner Bibee
Kris Bubic (2-0) with a 0.71 ERA
Last Start: Bubic went 6 2/3 innings in his last outing, allowing one earned run on five hits while striking out eight in a win over the Baltimore Orioles.
Away Splits: Bubic is 1-0 with a 0.00 ERA over one start on the road.
Tanner Bibee (1-1) with a 6.52 ERA
Last Start: Bibee struggled in his last start, going four innings while allowing seven earned runs on eight hits while striking out four and walking one in a loss to the Los Angeles Angels.
Home Splits: This will be Bibee's first start at Progressive Field this season.
Here are the MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Royals-Guardians Odds
Kansas City Royals: +1.5 (-205)
Moneyline: +118
Cleveland Guardians: -1.5 (+168)
Moneyline: -138
Over: 7 (-110)
Under: 7 (-110)
How to Watch Royals vs. Guardians
Time: 6:10 PM ET/3:10 PM PT
TV: FDSO and FDSKC
*Watch MLB games LIVE with fuboTV (Get Access | Save $30)*
Why The Royals Will Cover The Spread/Win
Article Continues Below
The Royals are playing inconsistent baseball to start the season. Overall, it has not been smooth sailing for the Royals, as they were 6-6 going into Thursday's game against the Minnesota Twins. While many expected the Royals to win the American League Central, there are still some issues.
The offense has struggled. Unfortunately, they are just 20th in batting average, 23rd in runs, 29th in home runs, and 25th in slugging percentage. But the Royals still have some critical hitters who can make a difference.
Vinnie Pasquantino just set a feat that has not been done since George Brett did it over 30 years ago when he drove three runners home with a single. Now, he leads the Royals in RBIs and continues to be a threat at the plate. Bobby Witt Jr. is an American League MVP candidate but has struggled to start the season. Ultimately, the Royals need him to do more to contribute. Maikel Garcia has been an efficient member in the lineup. Now, he will look to stay hot in this one.
The Royals will likely get a good outing from Bubic. However, he may have to turn it over to a bullpen that has not done well recently. The relievers rank 28th in bullpen ERA and must figure it out to protect leads late in the game.
The Royals will cover the spread if Pasquantino, Witt, and Garcia can all string some hits together. Then, Bubic must find the strike zone, and the bullpen must pitch better.
Why The Guardians Will Cover The Spread/Win
The Guardians are also struggling to maintain consistency. However, when they win, they do it in unique ways. The Guardians had a walk-off walk to beat the Chicago White Sox the other day. Yet, it also showcased how bad their offense has been lately.
The Guardians rank 26th in batting average, 20th in on-base percentage, and 26th in runs. Yet, they are also 12th in home runs, highlighting that they have some power. Once again, the Guardians seem like an “all or nothing” type lineup.
Jose Ramirez captures that nearly perfectly. While his batting average is not bad, at .281, he also has four home runs and six RBIs. The Guardians may have found a gem in Kyle Manzardo if he can improve his batting average. So far, he is batting .222 with three home runs, nine RBIs, and five runs. Steven Kwan is reliable at the top of the order, batting .300 with one home run, three RBIs, and nine runs.
Bibee will look to get on track. When he exits, he will turn it over to a bullpen that is 11th in baseball in team ERA. Spearheaded by elite closer Emmanuel Chase, this group is solid and can hold leads when needed.
The Guardians will cover the spread if their top hitters can slug the baseball out of the park and force Bubic to throw more pitches. Then, they need a good outing from Bibee to avoid falling behind.
Final Royals-Guardians Prediction & Pick
The Royals are 5-7 against the spread, while the Guardians are 4-7. Additionally, the Royals are 2-1 against the spread on the road, while the Guardians are 0-2 against the spread at home.
The Royals went 8-5 against the Guardians last season, including 4-2 in six games at Progressive Field. To me, that means they know how to play here and will do everything to keep this close. Plus, I like the pitching advantage for the Royals. I will roll with the Royals to cover the spread on the road.
Final Royals-Guardians Prediction & Pick: Royals +1.5 (-205)
