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Returning from his one-year suspension after his controversial win over Devin Haney, Ryan Garcia (24-1, 1 NC) takes on former champion Rolando ‘Rolly' Romero (16-2). It is time to continue our boxing odds series with a Ryan Garcia-Rolly Romero prediction and pick.
Garcia, 26, has not fought since picking up the biggest win of his career over Haney in April 2024, a fight that has since been overturned to a no contest. Garcia tested positive for Ostarine post-fight, leading to a one-year suspension and his banishment from the WBC. He subsequently raised concerns about his mental health with troubling social media posts and legal troubles, but has been radio silent for months after he committed himself to his recovery.
Romero, 29, has only fought once during the time Garcia was suspended, picking up a unanimous decision victory over Manuel Jaimes. The win was a rebound from his TKO loss to Isaac Cruz in March 2024, losing the WBA super lightweight belt in the process. Romero has gone 2-2 in his last four fights with wins over Jaimes and Ismael Barroso but knockout losses to Cruz and Gervonta ‘Tank' Davis.
Here are the Ryan Garcia-Rolly Romero odds, courtesy of FanDuel
Boxing Odds: Ryan Garcia-Rolly Romero Odds
Ryan Garcia: -1000
Rolando ‘Rolly' Romero: +560
Over 6.5 Rounds: -112
Under 6.5 Rounds: -112
How to Watch Ryan Garcia vs. Rolando ‘Rolly' Romero
Time: 6 p.m. ET / 3 p.m. PT
Main event ring walk (estimated):
TV/Stream: DAZN pay-per-view
*Watch sports LIVE with fuboTV (Get Access / Save $30)*
Why Ryan Garcia Will Win
Through all the questions of ring rust, mental health and PED usage, Garcia's power will remain. Against a fighter in Romero, whose two losses have been by knockout, the path to victory is transparent.
At this point in his career, Garcia's affinity for his left hook is well-known. Each time Romero has been knocked down in his career, he was hurt by a left hook. Garcia's game may not be diverse, but his hand speed is still absurd, and his left hook has landed on everyone except Davis.
Garcia is not the best defensive boxer, but Romero's openings in his own guard are more pronounced. The power is entirely on Garcia's side, and Romero has not shown the one-hit knockout ability that has folded Garcia in the past. The fight occurring at 147 pounds is a massive advantage for Garcia, who is naturally the bigger fighter. Romero has never fought at welterweight, last competing at 140 pounds.
Why Rolando ‘Rolly' Romero Will Win
Nobody really knows what to expect from Garcia after the way his last year has gone. Fans want to believe he got the help he needed, but nobody will truly know until Friday night. Combine the mental concerns with his year-long layoff, and now seems like as good a time as any to be fighting Garcia.
Throughout his career, Romero has struggled with power, leading to his two knockout losses. But with Cruz and Davis finishing everyone, it is hard to count those losses against him. Garcia also owns a knockout loss to Davis under different circumstances. Some are quick to call Romero “chinny,” but his two defeats have come against the two best finishers in the super lightweight division.
In his last fight, Romero gave Jaimes fits with his lateral movement, a strategy that could frustrate an immature power puncher like Garcia. Even before Cruz and Davis got to him, he gave both trouble with his footwork and long jab. Garcia is more popular among fans following his pseudo-win over Haney, but Romero has much more high-level experience.
Final Ryan Garcia-Rolly Romero Prediction & Pick
It might be hard to back Garcia at 10-1 odds, given everything he has been through lately. But with the weight advantage and the favorable matchup Romero presents, this should be a warm welcome back to the ring. Garcia is far from a perfect fighter and has shown the ability to nearly let wins slip through his fingers, but he is going to want to make a statement in this return.
Although Romero has been knocked out twice in his last four fights, his chin is not as frail as some make it seem. Though Cruz nearly ended him in round one, both he and Davis did not finish him until the second half of the fight. Even at a higher weight class, Garcia has the power and style to hurt Romero, but the odds of him finishing the fight early are slim.
Romero has never been knocked down twice in a fight, but the 1.5 knockdown line has hit the “over” in four of Garcia's last six bouts. Garcia has the fastest hands of any opponent Romero has faced, and his power is second only to Davis. Garcia desperately wants an early finish, but it is going to take him a bit longer against Romero's chin that has recovered well against everyone except Davis.
Final Ryan Garcia-Rolly Romero Prediction & Pick: Over 6.5 rounds (-112), Over 1.5 knockdowns (-125)
