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We're back again with a betting prediction and pick for the Main Card of UFC Saudi Arabia: Adesanya vs. Imavov as we head to the Heavyweight Division for this next ranked matchup. No. 4 Sergei Pavlovich of Russia will take on No. 9 Jairzinho Rozenstruik of Suriname in a can't-miss scrap. Check the UFC odds series for our Pavlovich-Rozenstruik prediction and pick.
Sergei Pavlovich (18-3) has gone 6-3 during his UFC run since 2018. After winning six consecutive fights by knockout in the first round, he fell to Tom Aspinall in contending for the vacant belt. Most recently, he dropped to Alexander Volkov via decision and will be hoping to get back on the title track in this one. Pavlovich stands 6-foot-3 with an 84-inch reach.
Jairzinho Rozenstruik (15-5) has gone 9-5 in the UFC since 2019. He most recently beat Tai Tuivasa in a split decision for his second-straight win, going 3-2 in his last five fights. He's faced a who's who in the Heavyweight Division in a short amount of time and will be looking for another win to add to his run. Rozenstruik stands 6-foot-2 with a 78-inch reach.
Here are the UFC Saudi Arabia Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC Saudi Arabia Odds: Sergei Pavlovich-Jairzinho Rozenstruik Odds
Sergei Pavlovich: -310
Jairzinho Rozenstruik: +250
Over 1.5 rounds: +160
Under 1.5 rounds: -210
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Why Sergei Pavlovich Will Win
- Last Fight: (L) Alexander Volkov – U DEC
- Last 5: 3-2
- Finishes: 15 KO/TKO
Sergei Pavlovich will be making his return following a tough loss against Alexander Volkov. There was a ton of respect between the fellow countrymen during the bout, but Pavlovich ultimately couldn't find answers for the size and reach of Volkov. He'll have a much more tailor-made opponent this time around and he'll be enjoying a six inch discrepancy in the reach. With the way he blitzes his opponents, his reach serves as his greatest asset in ensuring he lands first during a chaotic fight.
His opponent has also been known to seek quick knockout finishes, so this bodes more along the lines of a fight we may have seen from Pavlovich during his blistering run of knockouts in the first round. However, he's much more humble in his approach knowing he can be beat and we should see a much more measured version of him in this one. His movement looked improved in a three-round environment, so don't be surprised if Pavlovich takes his time finding the target during this one.
Why Jairzinho Rozenstruik Will Win
- Last Fight: (W) Tai Tuivasa – S DEC
- Last 5: 3-2
- Finishes: 13 KO/TKO
Jairzinho Rozenstruik has looked great over his last two fights as we were able to finally see him in a five-round environment against Shamil Gaziev. Rozenstruik proved that for how big he is, he certainly has a great gas tank to go along with it and loves to wear his opponents down with his volume striking. He's also capable of shutting the lights out with looping hooks and big uppercuts, so expect him to welcome a brawl against Pavlovich. His head movement, however, will be most important as he'll be wary of the power coming back his way.
Rozenstruik can find success in this fight if he's able to use his quickness and movement to his advantage. This means staying in perpetual motion and constantly circling around the range of his opponent. While he's dealing with a size and reach discrepancy, Rozenstruik is the more fluid fighter and could benefit from how stiff Pavlovich can stand at times. He'll need to be explosive and unpredictable if he wants a chance to overcome the betting odds.
Final Sergei Pavlovich-Jairzinho Rozenstruik Prediction & Pick
Given the nature of both of these fighters and where to betting odds are set, we don't expect this fight to last very long as both men have 11 combined UFC knockouts in the first round. Both fighters are quick to take the center of the octagon and it's not long before one of them ends the fight early with their fists.
While Jairzinho Rozenstruik is the slightly more technical fighter with a more diverse arsenal of offense, the reach discrepancy will certainly be an issue in this type of fight. Pavlovich certainly has more power behind his shots and given the slightly smaller opponent, he should have a much easier time finding the chin than he did during his last two fights. In addition, he was just inches away from taking out Tom Aspinall and winning the heavyweight belt over a year ago.
For our final prediction, we'll have to roll with Sergei Pavlovich to earn the Round 1 knockout in this one.
Final Sergei Pavlovich-Jairzinho Rozenstruik Prediction & Pick: Sergei Pavlovich (-310); UNDER 1.5 Rounds (-210)
