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Stanford (19-11) and Louisville (24-6) conclude their 2024-2025 regular seasons with a Saturday afternoon matchup at the KFC Yum! Center. It's time to continue our College Basketball odds series with a Stanford-Louisville prediction and pick.
Stanford has been up-and-down for most of the year, going just 11-8 in ACC play. The Cardinal recently embarked on a three-game win streak into March but are coming off a two-point loss to Notre Dame. Stanford currently projects to enter the conference tournament with a mid-range seeding.
Louisville has been much more consistent in league play, going 17-2. The Cardinals enter their final home game on an eight-game win streak and ride an 18-1 stretch since losing to No. 5-ranked Kentucky on Dec. 14, 2024. They are currently second in the ACC, only trailing Duke.
Here are the Stanford-Louisville College Basketball Odds, courtesy of FanDuel
College Basketball Odds: Stanford-Louisville Odds
Stanford: +11.5 (-102)
Moneyline: +540
Louisville: -11.5 (-120)
Moneyline: -800
Over: 150.5 (-110)
Under: 150.5 (-110)
How to Watch Stanford vs. Louisville
Time: 2 p.m. ET / 11 a.m. PT
TV: ESPNU
*Watch college basketball LIVE with fuboTV (Get Access | Save $30)*
Why Stanford Will Cover The Spread/Win
Article Continues Below
Louisville's record is elite on paper, but it is just average against the spread. The Cardinals are 18-12 ATS overall and cover as a home favorite at just a 50 percent clip. However, as a double-digit favorite, they are a subpar 5-7 ATS. Louisville is also puzzlingly better on the road than they are at home, where it is just 7-9 ATS.
Stanford has fully leaned on star center Maxime Raynaud, who ranks second in the ACC with 20.2 points per game. Raynaud takes a whopping 32.2 percent of the team's shots, per The Louisville Cardinal. At 7-foot-1, 250 pounds, he out-weighs Louisville center James Scott by 30 pounds. The Cardinals' four-out approach increases Raynaud's odds of obtaining an even bigger advantage on a switch.
Since suffering a 36-point loss to Duke, Stanford has looked its best all year as it pushes for a tournament bid late in the year. The Cardinal are 3-1 in their last four games, with the lone loss two-point heartbreaker at Notre Dame. Louisville enters the matchup as winners of its last eight games and a top seed in the ACC tournament already locked up. While Stanford desperately wants to carry momentum into the postseason, Louisville might already be looking ahead.
Why Louisville Will Cover The Spread/Win
Stanford is 19-11 on the year but has a negative record against the spread in every relevant situation. The Cardinal are just 8-11 ATS in the ACC and 2-7 in conference road games. More importantly, Stanford is on a horrible ATS stretch, going just 2-8 in its last 10 games. They have been better of late but entered each of their last four games as the favorite.
The Cardinal, who are just 3-7 straight-up and ATS on the road, struggle when they have to travel from their home in California to the Eastern Time Zone. They are a poor 1-7 in such scenarios, with the only win a last-second victory over North Carolina in January. Stanford has also remained on the road since Wednesday, when it faced Notre Dame in South Bend.
All season long, the Achilles heel of this Louisville team has been its reliance on the three-point shot. The Cardinals hit 9.8 three-pointers per game, the 23rd-most in the country. However, they hit just 33.5 percent from deep, ranking 198th. Defensively, they also rank 207th in opponent threes made per game and 164th in opponent three-point percentage. Stanford is not the team to exploit either weakness, making just 8.2 threes per game.
Final Stanford-Louisville Prediction & Pick
Stanford has only faced two ranked opponents thus far, going 0-2 straight-up and against the spread. There are still concerns about a potential trap game with the ACC tournament looming, but that does not appear to be how the Cardinals are approaching their senior night.
With their guard-heavy approach, Louisville can be vulnerable in the paint but is often beaten in transition and on the run. Their fast-paced play style can be somewhat of a double-edged sword, resulting in frequent, costly turnovers and easy points. That being said, Stanford is almost the exact opposite team to take advantage of that scenario, preferring to play at a much slower pace with significantly less efficiency.
The Cardinals are always prone to going cold from deep, but they are catching a potentially fatigued Stanford team that has been across the country for nearly a week at the right time. The Cardinal are horrible against the spread on the road, especially in the Eastern Time Zone. Take advantage of the situation in an under-the-radar ACC regular-season finale.
Final Stanford-Louisville Prediction & Pick: Louisville -11.5 (-120)
