We're set for another UFC Vegas 104 betting prediction and pick as the Prelims continue to roll with this next bout in the Women's Strawweight (115) Division. Brazil's Stephanie Luciano will take on Fortis MMA's own Sam Hughes as both fighters look for back-to-back wins. Check the UFC odds series for our Luciano-Hughes prediction and pick.

Stephanie Luciano (6-1-1) will make her second UFC appearance following a unanimous win over Talita Alencar in her debut back in August 2024. She fought to a majority draw during her Contender Series audition, but clearly the UFC saw promise in his skill set as she's favored against an established fighter like Hughes. Luciano stands 5-foot-6 with a 65.5-inch reach.

Sam Hughes (9-6) has gone 4-5 inside the UFC since 2020 while alternating wins and losses over her last five bouts. Most recently, she gained a split decision victory over Victoria Dudakova with her last four consecutive fights heading to a three-round decision. She'll look to impress as the betting underdog in this one. Hughes stands 5-foot-5 with a 64-inch reach.

Here are the UFC Vegas 104 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings. 

UFC Vegas 104 Odds: Stephanie Luciano-Sam Hughes Odds

Stephanie Luciano: -230

Sam Hughes: +190

Over 2.5 rounds: -600

Under 2.5 rounds: +390

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Why Stephanie Luciano Will Win

  • Last Fight: (W) Talita Alencar – U DEC
  • Last 5: 3-1-1
  • Finishes: 2 KO/TKO

Stephanie Luciano looked to be in the best form of her career in her debut win over Talita Alencar. Already a skilled and technical striker, Luciano added new wrinkles to her game and impressed with a massive jumping knee strike that almost knocked her opponent out. She managed to keep Alencar retreating throughout the entire fight and threw the kitchen sink at her in terms of varied striking techniques. She lands 5.3 strikes per minute while only absorbing 2.53, denying 68% of shots coming back her way.

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From here, Stephanie Luciano will only look to get better and she'll be the much more active striker against a fighter like Sam Hughes. Luciano is much more athletic in her movements and will be willing to throw more variation into her attacks compared to that of her opponent. Once she starts landing, Luciano does a great job of pouring on the pressure and getting her opponent to panic with quick decisions from the pocket. Don't be surprised if she's able to finish this fight with a knockout on the feet.

Why Sam Hughes Will Win

  • Last Fight: (W) Victoria Dudakova – S DEC
  • Last 5: 3-2
  • Finishes: 2 KO/TKO, 3 SUB

Sam Hughes dealt with another dangerous striker with Victoria Dudakova in her last fight as she was able to mitigate the strikes coming back her way with strong defense. While she was taken down on three occasions, she managed to get to her feet quickly and continue her momentum in the striking game. Her confidence as a striker has grown with each of her passing fights, so don't be surprised if we see another new and improved version of herself ahead of this one.

Sam Hughes has a tremendous chin and there's not much that can deter her from walking forward and getting shots off against her opponent. She's very technical in the way she closes the distance and enters into range, so look for her to constantly be testing Luciano with her jab out front. If she's able to find a home in the jab and keep Luciano from getting into range, this could be another steady affair where she slowly breaks her opponent down and negates their offense.

Final Stephanie Luciano-Sam Hughes Prediction & Pick

This should be a fun striking matchup and neither woman is too quick to initiate the wrestling and head to the ground. In terms of pure striking, we have to give the significant advantage to the betting favorite in Luciano as she's much more varied and creative with what she throws during the fight. In terms of fundamentals and fight management, the slight edge can be given to Hughes for her experience in making it three rounds against a wide array of opponents.

While neither fighter is a huge threat to land a knockout, the greater upside lies with Stephanie Luciano and it's indicative by the betting odds. She's also much more fluid with her movements and does a great job of circling around her opponents, so don't be surprised if she's not getting hit too much throughout this fight.

For our final betting prediction, we have to roll with Stephanie Luciano to get the win behind her crisp striking. She's far too athletic to be hit clean by Hughes and her speed advantage should become apparent early into this fight. Let's take the betting favorite to win by unanimous decision in this one.

Final Stephanie Luciano-Sam Hughes Prediction & Pick: Stephanie Luciano (-230)