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We've got another great matchup on deck as we're set to bring you our betting prediction and pick for this next bout on the UFC Vegas 97 Main Card taking place in the Featherweight (145) Division. We'll see exciting brawls take center-stage as USA's Steve Garcia takes on Canada's own Kyle Nelson. Check out our UFC odds series for our Garcia-Nelson prediction and pick.
Steve Garcia (16-5) has gone 5-2 during his UFC run since 2020. He's been on the shelf with a number of injuries and cancelled fights, but he's notched four consecutive victories all by knockout heading into this one. He has yet to see a third round in the UFC since his arrival, so he'll be chasing another quick finish in this one. Garcia stands 6'0″ with a 75-inch reach.
Kyle Nelson (16-5-1) heads into this bout with a 4-4-1 record in the UFC since 2018. He began his tenure with a rocky start and string of losses, but he's won his last three consecutive fights and was originally slated to take on Calvin Kattar in this spot. Now, he'll pivot towards Garcia as he looks for his fourth-straight win. Nelson stands 5'11” with a 71-inch reach.
Here are the UFC Vegas 97 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC Vegas 97 Odds: Steve Garcia-Kyle Nelson Odds
Steve Garcia: -185
Kyle Nelson: +154
Over 1.5 rounds: +135
Under 1.5 rounds: -175
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Why Steve Garcia Will Win
Steve Garcia has been a huge asset for the UFC as another game fighter who's willing to step in on short notice and face anyone on the roster. This fight will be no different as he fills the spot for Calvin Kattar, who had to pull out of this bout due to injury. It's no problem for Garcia, however, as this will be his toughest fight to-date against a very experienced veteran. Garcia has been very active throughout his setbacks and he's currently riding a four-fight winning streak thanks to his will and determination. He has a knack for finding the knockout finish and he'll be fully intent on making Nelson his next victim.
Despite his tendency for a wild brawl to ensure, Steve Garcia is very calculated with his punches and doesn't take a ton of unnecessary risks. While Kyle Nelson may be more technical with his game, Steve Garcia has toughness and an ability to find the chin that can't always be taught. His ability to read opponents' timing and put together boxing combinations in response has put him on this winning streak and if his power wasn't apparent before, it sure is no. Look for Garcia to have his best boxing performance to-date in this one.
Why Kyle Nelson Will Win
Kyle Nelson is coming in on a three-fight winning streak at the moment, the longest streak he's put together since joining the UFC roster. He's extremely adept at mixing his martial arts and doesn't favor any techniques over others, instead using them equally and showing his proficiency wherever the fight takes him. He's very solid in dictating where the fight takes place with his strong wrestling base and 73% takedown defense. His opponent may be even better in shutting down the wrestling, so expect Kyle Nelson to try his hand on the feet and looking for the knockout in this one. His last finish came from knees in the clinch and he could look to employ a similar tactic against Garcia.
Kyle Nelson does a very good job at avoiding being hit cleanly and when he does, he's usually great about shaking it off and not letting it affect him too much. He always remains consistent in his cadence marching forward and will continue to stick his jab all night if he finds a home in it. He's not likely to go down easy here, so fully expect him to match Garcia's pace and start swinging for the fences if his opponent calls for it. Nelson is certainly the more calculated strikers and he'll be focused on finding the small openings when Garcia begins to let his hands fly a little.
Final Steve Garcia-Kyle Nelson Prediction & Pick
We should have a fun fight on our hands as both men are willing to let their own hands fly and throw caution to the wind. Kyle Nelson certainly has more to lose here and he's putting a three-fight winning streak on the line after losing his ranked opponent to injury. Steve Garcia, on the other hand, has a huge chance to spoil the party and place himself in Nelson's position with a win.
Kyle Nelson will be most dangerous during this fight if he's able to find the target with his jab and remain persistent on it through all three rounds. We've seen him give better strikers than him trouble in the past and his ability to march forward is often enough to disrupt the rhythm of his opponents.
Still, we have to favor Steve Garcia here with his ability to finish the fight with his boxing. He's got the much more active hands and we should see him land a number of times here. If he's not able to knock Nelson out here, he should be the one leading the striking numbers by the end of the third round.
Final Steve Garcia-Kyle Nelson Prediction & Pick: Steve Garcia (-185)
