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UFC 314 is live from the Kaseya Center in Miami for another action-packed night of fights as we bring you a betting prediction and pick for this upcoming Flyweight (125) scrap.
Sumudaerji “The Tibetan Eagle” will take on New England's Mitch Raposo as both fighters look to get back on track with a win. Check the UFC odds series for our Sumudaerji-Raposo prediction and pick.
Sumudaerji (16-7) has gone 3-4 inside the UFC since 2018. Following a three-fight winning streak in 2020-21, Sumudaerji has dropped three consecutive bouts coming into this fight, his most recent against Charles Johnson. He'll have his back against the wall as the betting favorite against a hungry opponent. Sumudaerji stands 5-foot-8 with a 72-inch reach.
Mitch Raposo (9-2) comes into this bout with an 0-1 record thus far in the UFC. He was a contestant on The Ultimate Fighter and went 0-1 in Dana White's Contender Series, but he's back to prove himself after a debut loss to Andre Lima in the underdog spot once again. Raposo stands 5-foot-5 with a 64.5-inch reach.
Here are the UFC 314 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC 314 Odds: Sumudaerji-Mitch Raposo Odds
Sumudaerji: -170
Mitch Raposo: +142
Over 2.5 rounds: -180
Under 2.5 rounds: +140
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Why Sumudaerji Will Win
- Last Fight: (L) Charles Johnson – U DEC
- Last 5: 2-3
- Finishes: 13 KO/TKO, 1 SUB
After a promising winning streak through the early stage of his UFC tenure, Sumudaerji has dropped three straight fights after seeing an increase in his level of competition. He's had to face veterans like Charles Johnson and Tim Elliott with two of those three losses coming by way of submission.
He's lost six fights via the submission, so it's clear on what he'll have to improve against an active grappler like Raposo. Still, we've seen glimpses of an extremely talented striker, and if he's able to keep this fight on the feet, he stands to potentially find a knockout late in this fight.
Sumudaerji's key to success will be using his length and reach advantage to keep this fight at distance. He's very active with his kicking game and could stand to see success if he's able to hinder Raposo's movement with the low kick.
His takedown defense is a solid 66%, so it would certainly benefit him to be able to open his striking as opposed to sitting on the fence and defending the takedowns. He lands 4.72 strikes per minute to Raposo's 2.29 per minute, all while doing so at a 53% clip. Expect him to control this fight if they remain on the feet.
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Why Mitch Raposo Will Win
- Last Fight: (L) Andre Lima – S DEC
- Last 5: 4-1
- Finishes: 4 KO/TKO, 3 SUB
Mitch Raposo saw great success with four straight finishes in other organizations, but he was outmatched by Andre Lima during his first official UFC appearance. Granted, he was a +250 underdog and managed to take the fight to a split decision, so it's not a terrible loss on his record, and the UFC clearly sees potential in him as a talent.
He's fought a ton under pressure in various situations, and he's very confident in his skills wherever the fight takes place. If he's able to execute his game plan, he could be in for another surprising underdog performance.
While Raposo will have to deal with a significant height and reach disadvantage, he typically does a good job of closing the distance with his jab and using head movement to work inside.
While he's landing about two takedowns a fight with a 60% accuracy, he can certainly benefit from working his jiu jitsu against an opponent that clearly struggles on the ground. Raposo will have to fight a smart bout in order to not allow Sumudaerji to dictate the pace from the striking exchanges.
Final Sumudaerji-Mitch Raposo Prediction & Pick
Both men are fighting for something as Sumudaerji looks to break a three-fight losing streak and Raposo hopes for his first UFC win. The betting odds are right where they should be as Sumudaerji will have a substantial size advantage over Raposo.
He's also the more active and experienced kickboxer, so he should be able to control this fight from the feet with his output and distance control.
However, we've seen how hard Raposo works, and he's a tough out for any opponent. If he's able to put his head down and relentlessly secure takedowns, he could win rounds if he's able to keep Sumudaerji and the mat and defending his ground-and-pound. It'll take a determined effort, but Raposo is always a live dog in any of his fights.
Still, I think Sumudaerji will do enough to keep this fight standing as he's bound to land at a much higher clip given his style. Let's roll with the betting favorite to get the close win.
Final Sumudaerji-Mitch Raposo Prediction & Pick: Sumudaerji (-170)
