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It is an AAC conference battle as Temple faces Tulsa. It is time to continue our College Football odds series with a Temple-Tulsa prediction, pick, and how-to-watch.
Temple enters the game at 2-1 on the year. They opened with a close win over Akron and it was a much closer game than expected. Akron had a 21-10 going into the half, but EJ Warner led Temple on two touchdown drives in the second half, while the defense bowed up to win 24-21. The next week, Temple was beaten soundly by Rutgers. It was a 36-7 loss for Temple, but they would rebound with a win over Norfolk. Then last week, Miami dominated Temple. Temple only scored once, in the last seconds of the first half. Miami led 24-7 at the half and won 41-7.
Tulsa also comes in at 2-2. They have won the games they should win and lost the games against the big-time Power Five schools. It was an opening win over an FCS school and then they stepped up in competition. Michael Penix Jr. threw three touchdown passes in a 43-10 Washington victory over Tulsa. Then Dillion Gabriel threw five touchdowns in a 66-17 win for Oklahoma. Last week, they trailed in the third quarter against Northern Illinois but would score the last 13 points of the game to win 22-14.
Here are the college football odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
College Football Odds: Temple-Tulsa Odds
Temple: +3.5 (-115)
Tulsa: -3.5 (-105)
Over: 55.5 (-110)
Under: 55.5 (-110)
How to Watch Temple vs. Tulsa
TV: ESPN
Stream: ESPN App
Time: 7:30 PM ET/ 4:30 PM PT
*Watch college football LIVE with fuboTV (click for a free trial)*
Why Temple Will Cover The Spread
For Temple to cover, EJ Warner is going to have to be solid. He has struggled this year against the bigger schools while playing well against the lesser competition. On the year Warner is 85 for 158 passing for 1,007 yards. While he does have five touchdowns and four big-time throws according to PFF, he has to be better at taking care of the ball. He has two interceptions already this year while having another nine turnover-worthy passes. Warner has also fumbled twice this year. Part of the issue is the wide receivers, who have dropped nine passes this year and struggled to create space. Part of it is on the offensive line. He has been pressured 49 times on 164 dropbacks. While he has scrambled away three times, and been sacked three times, the other 43 passes he has made have been under pressure.
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Warner has thrown to three primary targets this year, to varying degrees of success. Amad Anderson Jr. has brought in 21 of 35 targets sent his way for 297 yards. He has been solid after the catch, with 135 yards after the catch, and he does not have a drop. Dante Wright has brought in 17 of 27 targets for 189 yards and a score. He does have a drop and has just 60 yards after the catch. Finally, Zoe Baines has brought in 11 of 27 targets for 147 yards. He has two drops and just 19 yards after the catch. The biggest issue for the trio is contested balls. The three of them have only brought in six of 18 contested catches while allowing two interceptions.
The best part of the offense has been the running game. Joquez Smith has 190 yards on 30 carries and a touchdown. Meanwhile, Darvon Hubbard has 115 yards on 23 carries and a score. Both of them are getting right over two yards downfield before being hit, and both are averaging over 2.8 yards per carry after first contact. They also both have created seven missed tackles.
The Temple defense has also been solid this year. The pass rush has been good, getting 55 quarterback pressures on the season and six sacks. Diwun Black leads the way there with 11 pressures and two sacks on the season. Meanwhile, they have been stout against the run. They have created 81 offensive failures on just 137 running attempts. DJ Woodbury has been the best against the run. The linebacker has 14 stops for offensive failure on 15 tackles this year.
Why Tulsa Will Cover The Spread
Cardell Williams did get the start again at Northern Illinois and it did not go well for him. He was just 8-20 passing for 102 yards and two interceptions. Over the year, he has struggled with sacks and turnovers. First, he has thrown five interceptions this year with another three turnover-worthy passes. Williams has also fumbled this year. Second, he is being pressured on over a third of his dropbacks this year. This has led to him being sacked eight times, which is nearly a 30 percent sack rate when he is pressured.
The best way to help Williams out in the passing game is going to be a solid running game. The top runner this year has been Anthony Watkins. He has run 58 times for 243 yards and a score. He has done a lot of work after first contact this year, coming away with 152 yards after contact of the season. Meanwhile, Bill Jackson has been doing the same. He has 29 attempts this year for 166 yards. Jackson does not have a score but does have a fumble. He is averaging 4.38 yards after contact this year and has caused ten missed tackles.
Williams could also be helped from his receiving core. Maquis Shoulders has been solid this year. While he has brought in just 11 of 22 targets this year, they have been for big plays. He has 207 yards receiving this year and three scores. Devan Williams joins Shoulders as a top target. He has brought in 14 of 21 targets this year for 190 yards and a score.
One defense, Ben Kopenski and Owen Ostroski have been solid. Kopenski has 14 quarterback pressures and three sacks on the year. He also has seven stops for offensive failures on the year. Meanwhile, Oktroski has ten quarterback pressures and a sack on the year. He also has five stops for offensive failures on the year. In the run game, Kedarin Ray has been solid. He has made 11 stops for offensive failures, while the team has 66. That gives them over 60 percent success rates on running downs. Still, they have an under 25 percent success rate on passing downs.
Final Temple-Tulsa Prediction & Pick
The difference in this game is going to come down to quarterback play. Cardell Williams has not been good this year, and that has been the case for all the Tulsa quarterbacks. Tulsa has thrown ten interceptions this year with another 13 turnover-worthy passes. Meanwhile, EJ Warner has not been great, but he has been better than Tulsa has. Further, Tulsa has struggled on passing downs, and making very few stops on these plays. Warner is going to have a good game in this one, and Temple will cover.
Final Temple-Tulsa Prediction & Pick: Temple +3.5 (-115)
