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Super Bowl 58 is here! Parlays offer the highest payouts you can achieve betting on sports. However, they also come with the highest risk. Same-game parlays (SGPs) let you beg on multiple outcomes within one game. If you are lucky enough to cash a parlay, the profit can be extraordinary.
Last year, superstar rapper Drake won more than $700,000 betting on the Chiefs. While that was a straight bet that required Drake to wager nearly $1 million, bettors with small bankrolls can return eye-watering sums if they are able to pick a winning parlay.
Let’s take a look at one longshot parlay I put together for Super Bowl 58. With the odds for this parlay set at +27242, this is a lottery ticket. However, there is a possible path to this parlay cashing if the game plays out a certain way, and if it hits it will turn a $10 bet into more than $2,700.
All NFL odds courtesy of FanDuel.
Super Bowl 58 SGP:
Leg #1: Alternate Total: Over 50.5 total points
Leg #2: Alternate spread: Chiefs -2.5
Leg #3: Christian McCaffrey to score 2+ touchdowns
Legs #4 and 5: Isiah Pacheco and Travis Kelce anytime touchdown scorers
Leg #6: Patrick Mahomes 300+ alternate passing yards
Leg #7: Travis Kelce 70+ alternate receiving yards
Leg #8: Rashee Rice 7+ alternate receptions
Leg #9: Isiah Pacheco 50+ alternate rushing yards
Leg #10: Christian McCaffrey 100+ alternate rushing yards
The key when betting on a longshot parlay is to give yourself a realistic chance of winning. The best way to do this is by developing a storyline in your mind for how the game could go. Once you have this storyline, you can then work backward to determine What the most realistic course of events would be that could lead to the outcome you are predicting.
For this parlay, my storyline for the game goes as follows: It will be a high-scoring shootout where both teams rely on their star players. The 49ers will get off to a quick start while Kansas City works to establish the run. San Francisco will jump out to an early lead, and then Patrick Mahomes will lead the Chiefs as they come storming back.
After San Francisco dominates the first quarter, the Chiefs will work their way back in the second and third quarters and enter the fourth quarter with a small lead.
San Francisco will fight back and go ahead by three, but Mahomes will march down the field and put the ball in the endzone to take a four-point lead late in the game. Brock Purdy will try a couple of Hail Mary passes at the end that will be batted down, and the Chiefs win the game.
Super Bowl 58: How each leg of this Same-Game Parlay complements the others
First, the alternate total and alternate spread. A high-scoring, close game that goes back and forth will likely see a final score that reaches at least 50 points. 27-24 would get the job done and would satisfy the Chiefs covering the alternate spread of -2.5 points.
The next leg is arguably the most difficult: Christian McCaffrey to score 2+ touchdowns. In order to construct a parlay that flirts with +30000 odds, you are going to need to include at least one wager that is a long shot in and of itself. This could be a final scoring margin, a first/last touchdown scorer, an absurd alternate rushing/passing/receiving prop, or a player to score multiple touchdowns. When looking at all the options in this game, McCaffrey to score 2+ touchdowns makes the most sense.
McCaffrey is a dynamic player who can score in many ways. He is one of the best pure running backs in the league, but he is also a dynamic receiver who is equally capable of serving as a safety valve out of the backfield or running routes downfield.
Brock Purdy is a game manager who will frequently look to his safety outlet for check-downs when his other options are covered.
McCaffrey has already scored two touchdowns in one game in this year’s postseason, as he was able to find the endzone twice against the Packers. He could plausibly do it again in the Super Bowl.
Following the assumption that McCaffrey will need to have a big game in order for the 49ers to win, it stands to reason that he will get a steady diet of handoffs and will be productive with those carries. Going with that logic, it makes sense that McCaffrey will break the 100-yard rushing mark. We can bet on him to rush for 100 or more yards on the alternate rushing yards prop.
The next step is evaluating where Kansas City’s points will come from. As I expect the Chiefs to try and run a balanced offense, it makes sense they’ll get at least one score on the ground. That will likely go to their workhorse running back, Isiah Pacheco. Travis Kelce has been on fire throughout Kansas City’s postseason run this year, and he is a good bet to take one to the house as well.
Now, to close out this parlay, it’s time to take a closer look at Kansas City’s offense. We’ve already decided that Pacheco and Kelce will need to score touchdowns for this parlay to hit, so let’s take a closer look at their other offensive numbers. Given that I am anticipating the Chiefs to fall behind early and become more pass-heavy, it makes sense that Kelce will be a beneficiary as Mahomes’ most trusted target in the passing game. Betting Kelce to record 70+ receiving yards is reasonable.
Meanwhile, I’ll play it safer with Pacheco and back him to finish the game with 50+ rushing yards.
Rashee Rice is a reliable receiver who has gained Mahomes’ trust and knows how to get open against zone defenses, which Kansas City will likely face a lot of this weekend. Mahomes trusts Rice and knows where to look for him. I’m expecting these two will be on the same page, and Rice will end up with 7 or more receptions.
Lastly, if the Chiefs get behind and rely on Mahomes to lead them to victory, it’s likely the superstar quarterback will throw for more than 300 yards.
Super Bowl 58: The payout potential with this SGP is massive
A $1 bet on this SGP would win $272.43. A $10 wager would win $2,724.20. A $25 bet would win $6,810.71, a $50 bet would win $13,621.43, a $75 bet would win $20,432.14 and a $100 bet would win $27,242.86.
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