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Through two games, just a single point separates the Miami Heat and New York Knicks. After the Heat took Game 1 108-101, the Knicks responded with a 111-105 win in Game 2. With the series heading back to Miami for Game 3 on Saturday, Vegas oddmakers give the Heat the small edge to advance to the Eastern Conference Finals; on Fanduel, the Heat are -116 to win the series, while the Knicks are -102. Although the Knicks finished three games ahead of the Heat this season and entered the playoffs as one of the hottest teams in the NBA, they haven't yet proven their mettle in the crucible of the postseason. As such, here are the three reasons why Jimmy Butler and the Heat are favored over Julius Randle, Jalen Brunson and the Knicks in the playoffs.
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*Lines via Fanduel
Home Court Advantage
By splitting the first two games, the Heat managed to steal home court advantage from the Knicks—if the series goes to seven games, three of the remaining five games will be in Miami. For the Heat, this is crucial. Most NBA teams are better at home than on the road, but the Heat's split is especially stark. At home, the Heat went 27-14 but just 17-24 on the road. Similarly, the Heat won both of their home games against the Bucks in the first round, buoyed by an electric 56 point avalanche from Jimmy Butler as part of a massive comeback in Game 4. In this sense, the Heat have already completed the hard part and can now beat the Knicks simply by holding serve on their home court at the Kaseya Center.
Still, if any team can overcome losing home court advantage, it's the Knicks, who were one of just two teams to finish with better record on the road than they did at home (23-18 at Madison Square Garden, 24-17 in away games).
Jimmy Butler
Jimmy Butler is the scariest man in the NBA right now. He might not necessarily be the best (Steph Curry has been every bit his equal), but he makes everything feel possible. Against the Bucks, Butler pieced together a masterpiece over five games, dismantling the NBA's best team so thoroughly that he sent them spiraling into an existential criss. Although Butler missed Game 2 after spraining his ankle at the end of Game 1, he seems on track to suit up for Game 3. Even if Butler isn't at full strength, his energy is galvanizing—he controls the pace of the game with more patience and steadiness than anybody outside of LeBron James. He defends with a raging intensity—when he decides he wants to take the ball from you, he invariably is going to take the ball from you.
According to Vegas, Butler's presence is worth about five points for the Heat. The Knicks were five point favorites in Game 1, but became 10 point favorites in Game 2 in Butler's absence.
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Knicks Injuries
The status of Jimmy Butler's ankle has obviously garnered the bulk of the headlines, but the Knicks are quietly just as beat up as the Heat, if not more so. Namely, Jalen Brunson and Julius Randle are both nursing gimpy ankles of their own. Randle missed game Game 1 and is still working his way back from a sprained ankle he suffered in the Knicks' close out Game 5 win against Cleveland last week. To wit, Brunson is trying to gut through a mysterious sore ankle issue that's plagued him for the last two games.
Similarly, center Mitchell Robinson, the Knicks' breakout star of the first round, is plagued by a hip injury and starting shooting guard Quentin Grimes is still limited by the right shoulder injury that forced him to Games 4 and 5 of the last round. In this sense, RJ Barrett and Josh Hart are the only healthy members of the Knicks rotation in the playoffs.
Erik Spolestra
Knicks coach Tom Thibodeau is a very good basketball coach; Heat coach Erik Spolestra is a goddamn warlock. Against the Knicks and in the playoffs at large, Spolestra's game plan and in-game adjustments have been near flawless. His defense has strangled the Knicks' vaunted offense to just 106 points per game, more than 10 points below their average on the season. When the Knicks play RJ Barrett and Josh Hart at the same time, the Heat shrink the floor, daring the Knicks to hit enough threes to win.
So far, the Knicks haven't—in Game 1. they went a putrid 7-34, playing into the Heat's hands as bad shooters repeatedly bombed away from deep. To wit, the Heat have unearthed a paradoxical counter to the Knicks' fearsome offensive rebounding: not really trying to rebound. Rather than send all five guys crashing the glass to try to limit Mitchell Robinson, the Heat had perimeter players “leak out” in transition, creating fastbreak opportunities thanks to Kevin Love's generational outlet passing skills.
