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The Kansas City Chiefs are looking to repeat as Super Bowl champions in 2023, and they will rely heavily on their explosive and renowned offense to carry them to the promised land. In an offense littered with talented and athletic players across all of the skill positions, we have a number of enticing player props to bet on as we look forward to seeing what Kansas City’s exciting offense will do this fall. Continue reading for my favorite 2023 player props for the Chiefs!
Stay tuned to our NFL odds series for more on betting around the NFL.
Here are the NFL odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
Isiah Pacheco Over 775.5 Rushing Yards (-112)
Isiah Pacheco is a talented and athletic young running back who recorded 830 rushing yards on 170 attempts in 2022. While Pacheco may never see bell-cow running back numbers in terms of carries, he’ll be able to more than make up for that by taking advantage of defenses that are heavily focused on slowing down Patrick Mahomes and Kansas City’s explosive aerial attack. Many teams will sell out to defend against the pass, allowing Pacheco room to maximize his opportunities. Last season, he averaged 4.9 yards per carry, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he reaches that number again or even slightly exceeds it.
To be conservative, if we assume he sees slight regression and averages 4.7 yards per carry, with exactly 165 carries this bet would be a push. My money is on Pacheco getting closer to 180 or 190 carries, as the team will look to keep Mahomes fresh for another deep playoff run. I also wouldn’t be shocked if Pacheco’s yards per carry reached 5.0, which would make a successful outcome for the over bet on this prop even more likely.
I’m taking the over here in anticipation of Kansas City taking a more balanced and overall explosive offense into the 2023 season.
Travis Kelce Over 9.5 Receiving Touchdowns (-130)
Travis Kelce is by far the Chiefs' best receiver, and we can expect Mahomes to look Kelce’s way any time Kansas City finds themselves in the redzone, which should be very often. Kelce is the type of player who can find ways to get open and score against double teams or even triple teams, and Mahomes is well aware of Kelce’s ability.
Kelce’s speed and athleticism pair well with his incredible strength to give him excellent run-after-the-catch ability. In addition to being a top-tier weapon in the redzone, Kelce can score from between the 20s as well, whether that be catching a short pass and breaking tackles or taking a safety deep down the field to catch a long pass from Mahomes.
Kelce has recorded double-digit touchdowns in three of his past five seasons, and he finished 2021 with nine. I’m expecting Kelce to have another big season as Kansas City’s number-one receiving option.
Patrick Mahomes Over 4650.5 Passing Yards (-112)
Kansas City’s All-World quarterback has reached 4600 passing yards in three of his five full seasons and came within 70 yards in another season. Mahomes is only getting better, and as he continues to evolve and spread the ball around more, defenses will find themselves being stretched to their limit. Mahomes and offensive guru Andy Reid will always have another trick up their sleeve, and Mahomes is good enough to make even average receivers look elite. The bigger problem for opponents, however, is that the Chiefs have multiple above-average receiving weapons, including one bonfire superstar in tight end Travis Kelce. Double team Kelce and Mahomes will have no problem finding guys like Marquez Valdez-Scantling.
To make matters worse for opponents, Mahomes has yet another speedster to throw to in Kadarius Toney. He might never quite become Tyreek Hill, max that’s okay. We’ve seen what Mahomes can do with a playmaker like Hill, and even getting a Hill-lite type of player should make Mahomes very happy, and give defensive coordinators nightmares.
While opponents might be kept up at night, however, you can sleep soundly after placing this bet.
