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The UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Brady Main Card is finally live and we're set to bring you a betting prediction and pick for this next bout in the Lightweight (155) Division. USA's Trevor Peek will take on Israel's Yanal Ashmouz in a fight that's bound to be a certified banger! Check out our UFC odds series for our Peek-Ashmouz prediction and pick.
Trevor Peek (9-2) has gone 2-2 inside the UFC since his debut in 2023. He's alternated wins and losses throughout his tenure and he's made a name for himself with his no-frills brawling fight style. He's coming in off a tough decision that didn't go his way and he's hoping to redeem himself as the short betting favorite here. Peek stands 5'9″ with a 70-inch reach.
Yanal Ashmouz (7-1) has gone 1-1 during his first year in the UFC in 2023. He managed to finish Sam Patterson during his debut appearance, but dropped a unanimous decision to Chris Duncan his last time out. He hasn't fought in over a year and will be looking to get back on the winning track in this one. Ashmouz stands 5'9″ with a 69-inch reach.
Here are the UFC Vegas 97 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC Vegas 97 Odds: Trevor Peek-Yanal Ashmouz Odds
Trevor Peek: -125
Yanal Ashmouz: +105
Over 2.5 rounds: -145
Under 2.5 rounds: +114
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Why Trevor Peek Will Win
Trevor Peek has made a name for himself with his wild brawling fight style and he's been on the wrong end of things for half of his bouts. Although he's known for swinging for the fences from the opening bell, his last three consecutive bouts have gone towards decisions, two of which he lost unanimously. He'll certainly have to continue reinventing his game with each passing fight, but he may have a willing dance partner in Ashmouz who's looking to stand and bang in the center of the octagon. Trevor Peek should have the slight advantage in seeing a ton of similar matchups, so expect him to look more comfortable when things start turning chaotic.
Trevor Peek fights behind a solid 54% takedown defense rate and coupled with his activity in searching for takedowns, he should be the one dictating where this fight takes place. He's also seen the judges' scorecards in his last three fights, so we know he's fight to go the distance and continue pushing through the third round. His cardio is likely to have gotten better during the process and if he can keep his striking output consistent, he should be able to fight with the better optics during this one.
Why Yanal Ashmouz Will Win
Yanal Ashmouz makes a return following his most recent unanimous decision loss to Chris Duncan. Ashmouz was able to see success with his striking early and hit Duncan cleanly numerous times, but his gas tank visibly wore as the fight went on and his will was truly tested against a veteran like Chris Duncan. It'll be interesting to see what changes Ashmouz has made to his conditioning given over a year away from the sport. Still, he has no issues stepping in and intending to finish the fight quickly, so we could see him hunt for an early exit. He also boasts a strong wrestling game and will work tirelessly to finish the takedown if he gets his hands locked.
Yanal Ashmouz has seen relatively less action than Trevor Peek in the UFC and given his similar fight style, the wear and tear on his chin has been minimized due to his inactivity. That could serve him well in this fight if the two choose to engage in another brawl and we could see Ashmouz's chin stand the test more effectively. He'll have to wobble Trevor Peek in order to jump in for the finish, but he'll also have to be mindful of the wild counter-punching his opponent has become known for.
Final Trevor Peek-Yanal Ashmouz Prediction & Pick
This fight has “banger” written all over it and both men are no strangers to leaving with an early finish. Both fighters are willing to exchange massive combinations in the pocket during the first round and if either can land cleanly, we should see this fight end within the first few minutes.
However, Trevor Peek has done a lot of work in refining his game and we've seen him fight more conservatively over the last few fights. If he can weather the early storm of Ashmouz and keep his striking active into the third round, he should be able to walk away with the win as the favorite.
Yanal Ashmouz poses a great threat and both men will be equally dangerous in landing the last knockout punch. Still, the year away from action for Ashmouz is a concern given his opponents' aggression and it is always tough to replicate that kind of action in fight camp. Ultimately, we have to side with Trevor Peek to get this win as he's the more accurate striker come Saturday night.
Final Trevor Peek-Yanal Ashmouz Prediction & Pick: Trevor Peek (-125)
