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Two interim coaches face off in the 76 Birmingham Bowl as Troy faces Duke. It is time to continue our College Football odds series with a 76 Birmingham Bowl Troy-Duke prediction, pick, and how-to-watch.
The Birmingham Bowl began in 2006 under the name the PapaJohns.com Bowl. Commonly the bowl has pitted a power five team and a group of five teams in the game. This year is no different. Troy will be representing the Sun Belt in this game. It is just the second time a team from the Sun Belt has played in the game, with Coastal Carolina falling in this game last year. They come into the game as Sun Belt Champions as well. After starting the season 1-2, with a loss to James Madison there, Troy won their last ten games, including the conference title over Appalachian State. They will also come into this game with an interim coach, as Jon Sumrall left for the Tulane job.
Meanwhile, Duke will represent the ACC in this game. This will be the fourth time the ACC has played in this game and the first since the 2019 season. In that game, Wake Forest beat Memphis. Duke started the season strong, starting 4-0 with an upset of Clemson in there. They struggled mid year though, with losses to Notre Dame. Flordia State and Louisville. Still, they secured bowl eligibility with a win over Wake Forest, and while they would lose to North Carolina and Virginia at the end of the year, they would add one more win, beating Pitt. They will also be with an interim coach in this one. Mike Elko left before the bowl game to take over at Texas A&M.
Here are the college football odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
76 Birmingham Bowl: Troy-Duke Odds
Troy: -7.5 (-115)
Duke: +7.5 (-105)
Over: 44.5 (-105)
Under: 44.5 (-115)
How to Watch Troy vs. Duke
Time: noon ET/ 9:00 AM PT
TV: ABC
Stream: fuboTV (Click for free trial)
Why Troy Will Cover The Spread
Troy enters the game ranked 45th in points per game while sitting 37th in yards per game. They are 32nd in yards passing per game while sitting 75th in rushing. They have been led this year at quarterback by Gunnar Watson. He enters the game having completed 60.8 percent of his 408 passes this year for 3,310 yards and 27 touchdowns. Last time out was the first time in six weeks he had no thrown for multiple touchdowns. Further, Watson has taken care of the ball, with just five interceptions on the year. He had just one in his last eight games as well.
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The primary focus on the offense is Kimani Vidal at running back. He enters the game with 1,582 yards on the ground this year. Vidal has been great after contact this year, with 993 yards after contact and coercing 88 missed tackles on the year. He has scored 14 times this year, including last time out. Against Appalachian State Vidal ran for 233 yards and five touchdowns. Further, he has fumbled just twice this year, and not since week four against Western Kentucky.
In the receiving game, the big threats are Jabre Barber and Chris Lewis. Barber comes in with 66 receptions this year for 878 yards and five scores. Meanwhile, Lewis has scored ten times this year while being the big play threat. He has just 32 receptions but has 731 yards, good for 22.8 yards per reception this year.
The defense ranked sixth in the nation in points against this year, while sitting 14th in yards per game allowed. They were 15th against the rush while sitting 36th against the pass. They will be without Jayden McDonald, who led the team in tackles this year, and has entered the transfer portal. Still, they bring back Javon Solomon and Richard Jibnour. Solomon enters the game with 16 sacks this year, while Jibnour has another nine. Further, Reddy Stewart will be playing, and with it come his four interceptions and six pass breakups on the year.
Why Duke Will Cover The Spread
The Duke offense this year ranked 62nd in the nation in points per game while sitting 97th in the nation in yards per game. They were 59th in the run but sat 114th in the pass. Riely Leonard led the offense this year, having 1,102 yards passing in his seven games with seven passing touchdowns. He also ran for four touchdowns and over 300 yards this year. He has transferred though, so most likely it will be Grayson Loftis in at quarterback. Loftis played in five games, completing 54.5 percent of his passes for 823 yards. He also had eight passing touchdowns and three interceptions in those games.
Meanwhile, Jordan Waters is the running attack this year. He was great with 745 yards this year, and 5.2 yards per carry. He also scored 12 times. Waters is also in the transfer portal and not expected to play. Jaquez Moore comes in with 601 yards and six scores this year. He entered the portal but has since come back, and should be the primary back in this game.
In the receiving game, Jordan Moore led the way. He has 59 receptions this year for 794 yards. He will need to come up big in this game. The second receiver on the team was Jalon Calhous, who has 642 yards and four scores this year. He entered the transfer portal though, and will most likely be out for this one. This will leave Sahmir Hagans as the likely number two, and he has just 205 yards and 25 catches without a score this year.
The Duke defense was 22nd in the nation in points allowed this year while sitting 51st in yards allowed. They were 53rd against the run and 48th against the pass. The story of the Duke defense will also be opt-outs. Starting corner Brandon Johnson, edge rusher RJ Oben, defensive lineman Aeneas Peebles, and linebacker Dorian Mausi have all entered the transfer portal. Further, DeWayne Carter may sit out as well.
Final Troy-Duke Prediction & Pick
Duke is missing a ton in this game. While Grayson Loftis has shown he can run this offense, having to do so without Jordan Waters will be a tough task. Further, they will be without one of their top offensive linemen as well. Troy could have won this game without all the opt-outs, but with them, it seems unlikely Troy will lose. Expect a heavy dose of Kimani Vidal while the Troy defense continues to dominate.
Final Troy-Duke Prediction & Pick: Troy -7.5 (-115)
