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The Minnesota Twins and Cleveland Guardians battle in a matchup of American League Central rivals. The Guardians currently hold a 4.5-game lead in the division over the Kansas City Royals, while the Twins are in the last wild-card spot in the AL. The Detroit Tigers have miraculously made a comeback in the playoff race, sitting two games behind the Twins. The Twins let the Tigers back into the race by losing six of their last ten games. The Guardians haven't been much better, but are keeping pace with the teams chasing them. They hold a 6-4 record over their last ten games. The Guardians owned the Twins through ten games this season, winning eight. It's time to continue our MLB odds series with a Twins-Guardians prediction and pick.
Twins-Guardians Projected Starters
Bailey Ober vs. Tanner Bibee
Bailey Ober is 12-7 with a 3.90 ERA and a 0.99 WHIP.
Ober's last start was at home against the Cincinnati Reds. He pitched 6 2/3 innings with 6 strikeouts, allowing 6 hits, 2 walks, 5 earned runs, and a home run. The Twins lost 8-4 with Ober taking the loss. It was his second loss in his last six games, with the other four as no-decisions.
Ober is 5-4 on the road with a 3.76 ERA and a 0.94 WHIP. His record at home is better but he has better stats on the road.
Tanner Bibee is 11-8 with a 3.60 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP.
Bibee's last start was at home against the Tampa Bay Rays. He pitched 6 innings with 9 strikeouts, allowing 8 hits, no walks, 3 earned runs, and 2 home runs. The Guardians lost 3-1 with Bibee taking the loss thanks to his team's lack of offense. It was the second-straight loss for Bibee as the Guardians scored no runs in his start against the Los Angeles Dodgers.
Bibee is 4-3 at home with a 4.54 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP. He has been much better on the road, owning a 2.76 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP.
Here are the MLB Odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Twins-Guardians Odds
Minnesota Twins: -1.5 (+158)
Moneyline: +100
Cleveland Guardians: +1.5 (-192)
Moneyline: -118
Over: 7.5 (-105)
Article Continues Below
Under: 7.5 (-115)
How to Watch Twins vs. Guardians
Time: 6:40 PM ET/3:40 PM PT
TV: Bally Sports Network
Stream: fuboTV (Free Trial)
Why The Twins Will Cover The Spread/Win
Neither of these teams has been hitting the ball well, but the Twins are performing okay against right-handed pitching over their last ten games. They averaged 4.3 runs/nine over that span, hitting .223 with a .281 on-base percentage. The Guardians have been able to win six of their past ten games, but it hasn't been from an elite offense. They are batting just .239 against right-handed pitching with a .304 on-base percentage. The numbers are better than the Twins, but average nearly a run less per nine.
Why The Guardians Will Cover The Spread/Win
It isn't hard to see why the Guardians have been able to win games and why they could be a dark horse in the playoffs. Their bullpen has been on an unbelievable run, owning a 2.11 ERA overall this season. They've been even better over the last three games with a 1.07 mark.
Final Twins-Guardians Prediction & Pick
The Twins have a lot of reasons to back them in this matchup. Bailey Ober has been a better pitcher on the road this season, while Tanner Bibee is struggling at Progressive Field. The Twins are also generating runs more efficiently, and have much more to play for with the Tigers nearly catching them in the playoff race. The rest of this series could fall in the Guardians' favor but expect the Twins to find a way in this game.
Final Twins-Guardians Prediction & Pick: Twins ML (+100)
