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We're here to bring you a prediction and pick for this next fight on the UFC 294 Prelims, taking place in the Lightweight (155 lb) Division. UFC newcomer and hometown fighter Mohammad Yahya will make his UFC debut against the always-tough Trevor Peek of Alabama. Check out our UFC odds series for our Yahya-Peek prediction and pick.
Mohammad Yahya (12-3) comes into this bout making his UFC debut. For the first time, a hometown fighter will fight in front of the UAE fans as he looks to make a big splash in his debut fight. After a short stint in Bellator, Yahya has gone 7-1 in the UAE Warriors organization and he shapes up to be a UFC-ready prospect. Look for him to try and make a name for himself at Peek's dispense. Yahya stands 5'9″ with a 73-inch reach.
Trevor Peek (8-1) has gone 1-1 in his UFC appearances since winning a contract on Dana White's Contender Series. He capitalized big on his debut with a great knockout win, but was bested in his three-round war against Chepe Mariscal back in June. He comes in having faced the better competition and will rightfully be the slight betting favorite. Peek stands 5'9″ with a 70-inch reach.
Here are the UFC Odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
UFC 294 Odds: Mohammad Yahya-Trevor Peek Odds
Mohammad Yahya: +136
Trevor Peek: -168
Over 1.5 rounds: -102
Under 1.5 rounds: -124
How to Watch Mohammad Yahya vs. Trevor Peek
TV: ESPN+
Stream: ESPN+, Watch ESPN
Time: 10:00 a.m. ET/ 7:00 a.m. PT (Prelims)
*Watch sports LIVE with fuboTV (click for a free trial)*
Why Mohammad Yahya Will Win
Mohammad Yahya had a short stint with Bellator, but he had to take a sizable layoff from the sport to nurse knee injuries, delaying his eventual UFC debut. Yahya has found a way to win in the UAE Warriors organization, but it hasn't come easy and he's faced some adversity throughout. He's typically a very good counter-puncher, but he often waits for his opponents to get their shots off before throwing anything. He's been dropped a number of times in past fights and his overall striking certainly isn't clean by any means. At this point, Yahya's best chance will be to catch Trevor Peek coming in and shut the lights out with a hook.
His grappling has been very 50/50 up to this point and he may have to work some defense if Peek ends up finding a home in the takedowns. He hasn't faced many wrestlers up to Peek's par, so it'll be interesting to see how he handles the grappling early on. Trevor Peek will certainly be coming forward with some pace, so Yahya will have to work quickly in finding his timing and land counter shots before Peek gets a hold of him.
Why Trevor Peek Will Win
Trevor Peek had an all-out war his last time out against Chepe Mariscal, but it showed that his wild striking will only get him so far if he fails to focus on his technique. Still, Peek's reckless fighting has gotten him to 8-1 and he's an extremely tough guy to finish when trading in the pocket. He's got a fearless attitude and isn't scared to take a punch from in close. We've seen Yahya struggle in the past when backing up, so Trevor Peek should do everything to push the pace and get in his opponent's face. If he can tighten up his defense and close the distance, he should be able to open up his combinations on Yahya's questionable defense.
While we haven't seen a huge sample size of grappling from Yahya, it's safe to say Peek will be the better wrestler in this fight. If he gets hurt at any point, don't be surprised if Peek shoots for a single leg and works relentlessly to land it. He fights with great top pressure and if he realizes success in the grappling, he could rinse and repeat his way to a victory. Expect him to stay heavy on top and push a frantic pace as he tries to stun Yahya in his debut.
Final Mohammad Yahya-Trevor Peek Prediction & Pick
This will be a huge moment for Mohammad Yahya as he makes the walk to the octagon in front of his UAE home crowd. It'll certainly be a massive step-up in competition for him, but the crowd should be a massive advantage in willing him to a win. However, his striking defense and offense don't seem up-to-par with some of the other incoming prospects in this division. If Trevor Peek is able to push the pace and get Yahya on the back foot, he should be able to cause him some problems and get him to open up. It's never safe betting Peek with the way he fights, but he should be able to get this win if he's tightened up his defense since his last fight.
Final Mohammad Yahya-Trevor Peek Prediction & Pick: Trevor Peek (-168); OVER 1.5 Rounds (-102)
