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UFC 295: Jiri Prochazka vs. Alex Pereira continues on the main card with a fight in the featured bout in the strawweight division between Jessica Andrade and Mackenzie Dern. Andrade is coming off her longest losing streak of her career with three consecutive losses as she looks to right the ship when she goes to battle this weekend meanwhile, Dern is coming off her most dominant victory victory in her main event fight against Angela Hill her last time out. With that said, check out our UFC odds series for our Andrade-Dern prediction and pick.
Jessica Andrade (24-12) has not looked herself as of late losing three fights in a row for the first time in her career. Granted the competition has been elite Erin Blanchfield, Xiaonan Yan, and Tatiana Suarez who have been able to get the better of her. Andrade will be looking to stop the bleeding as she takes on surging contender Mackenzie Dern in the featured bout on the main card at UFC 295.
Mackenzie Dern (13-3) has alternated wins and losses over her last four fights but she is coming off of her most dominant victory against Angela Hill in her last fight. She was able to bring the fight to Hill and batter her on the feet as well as on the mat over the entirety of their main event fight. Dern will be looking to do one better and beat her most dangerous opponent yet Jessica Andrade and she looks towards a future title shot.
Here are the UFC Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC 295 Odds: Jessica Andrade-Mackenzie Dern Odds
Jessica Andrade: +170
Mackenzie Dern: -205
Over 2.5 Rounds: +135
Under 2.5 Rounds: -175
How to Watch Jessica Andrade vs. Mackenzie Dern
TV: ESPN+ PPV
Stream: ESPN+ PPV
Time: 10:00 p.m. ET/ 7:00 p.m. PT (Main Card)
Why Jessica Andrade Will Win
Jessica Andrade has seemed a bit off in each of her last three losses. There also is no shame losing to potential future champions in both the strawweight and women's flyweight divisions. She still possesses the power to knockout anyone in the strawweight division and the strength to dump anyone on their head. However, she will be need to be a bit more calculated with her approach coming in against a Brazilian Jiu Jitsu world champion like Mackenzie Dern.
We have seen Andrade get submitted in two of her three losses and being on the mat against someone of Dern's caliber spells trouble. Luckily for Andrade, Dern has an exceptionally hard time getting the fight to the mat as she's never got around to rounding out her wrestling game. To put it into perspective, Dern is only landing 0.81 takedowns per minute and is only successful on 15% of her takedowns, so out of 10 takedown attempts she is only landing 1.5.
Also, during her time as a strawweight competitor, she has only been taken down in two of her 13 fights and one of those was against an Olympic level wrestler. If Andrade can keep this fight on the feet, she should have little to no trouble teeing off on Dern who's had her fair share of trouble against strikers over her last four fights.
Why Mackenzie Dern Will Win
Mackenzie Dern is starting to look like a real title contender after each and every fight. She has grown immensely since the start to her UFC career and she is finally starting to hit her stride. What was the most impressive in her last fight against Angela Hill wasn't her dominant ground game but it was her improved striking. She was lighting up a seasoned striker in Hill on the feet with little to no problem at all.
Dern will now take on her most dangerous threat on the feet to date Jessica Andrade who will be a tough task for her but not one she can't overcome. She will need to land takedowns in this matchup or even pull guard just to get the fight to the mat. If Dern goes in there with the confidence that she can hang with Andrade on the feet, she will be in for a rude awakening. If she is able to get this fight to the mat or somehow get to the back of Andrade she could notch a submission victory much like Blanchfield and Suarez were able to do recently.
Final Jessica Andrade-Mackenzie Dern Prediction & Pick
This should be a fantastic matchup between these two strawweight competitors. Andrade is looking to get back on track in a big way meanwhile, Dern is looking to assert herself in title contention with the biggest win of her career at UFC 295. This just seems to be a bad stylistic matchup for Mackenzie Dern and she's being overpriced because of her last win against Hill and the recent losses of Andrade.
Andrade has shown fantastic takedown defense during her time as a strawweight and she is a Brazilian Jiu Jitsu black belt as well which should help stay safe on the mat if it happens to go there. The way that Dern struggled mightily to take down and submit non-existent grapplers like Hill, Yan, and Rodriguez leads me to believe she's going to have a terrible time trying to do the same in this matchup. Ultimately, Andrade is coming out of the gate guns blazing laying hands on Dern early and often eventually putting her away midway through the fight as Dern is not able to stand there and eat shots without taking the fight to the mat.
Final Jessica Andrade-Mackenzie Dern Prediction & Pick: Jessica Andrade (+170), Under 2.5 Rounds (-170)
